Disc: The bitter cold air mass is getting flushed out of the region- to be replaced by warmer temperatures, but that too, will be fleeting.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from KCLT to well offshore. This high will translate offshore overnight and set up a return flow of warmer air for the next two days.
Tonight: A much warmer night across the area. I don't think we radiate all that well as bands of cirrus clouds continue to streak into the area. For that reason, I went close to guidance and did not undercut as I would normally on a radiative night. Expect lows from 30-35 in the NW Hills to the low 40s along the S coast.
Tomorrow: It is unclear exactly how sunny it will be, especially in light of today. Today was forecast by nearly all models to be mostly sunny and is verifiying partly to mostly cloudy. Therefore, I went just close to, or just below, temp guidance with uncertainty in cloud cover. Still, it will be much warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: One more day of above normal temps on Sat. Forecast reasoning and methodology is the same as Fri. Once again, uncertain of how much sun we actually get vs. modeled, so went close to, or just a smidge below guidance. Expect temps in the upper 50s for highs.
Forecast confidence decreases a bit heading into Sun. For now, will keep the day dry, but there has been a discernable trend towards faster with this system. Either way, Sunday should see increasing cloudiness and turn more "raw" as high pressure up N presses cooler air into the region. I went way below guidance on Sunday's highs, due to clouds and strong NE flow. Temps probably don't rise much from AM lows. Xpct highs in the mid 40s.
A shot of light rain is likely Sunday night into early Monday, perhaps even ending with a burst of moderate rain. This may linger for a few hrs Mon morn, otherwise expect clearing skies on Mon. Temp guidance looks very warm to me for Mon, esp given that a) we may not clear until the 2nd half of the day and B) there is cold air advection. Therefore, I went quite a bit under guidance. Temps may very well just hover in the low to mid 40s from Sat night to Mon afternoon.
For Tuesday, I largely went very close to temp guidance, or just a smidge cooler here and there. Good cold air advection in place, if only temporary. Clouds begin to increase by nightfall ahead of the next system. Temps once again should be in the 40-45 degree range.
A large and moist system is slated to affect the area the day before and Turkey Day. Right now, the evolution looks something like one low driving up into PIT and another forming offshore. In complex situations like this, a lot of questions generally arise, such as how far north the primary low gets before transferring its energy and where exactly the coastal low begins to bomb out. Unfortunately, from this distance in time, there tend to be more questions than answers. For now, expect unsettled wx most, if not all, of Wed, and at least part of Thu, until we get closer and can hone in on the details.
It should be noted that the GGEM (Canadian) model is very different in evolution with this system. showing light, overrunning rains early on Wed, then a break, and then heavier rain on Turkey Day as a low moves straight up the Del River.
The ECMWF seems to be an outlier, with no overrunning moisture at all on Wed, then has the low track basically over NJ on Turkey Day, which is similar to the GGEM solution. Bottom line, expect unsettled wx those two days.
Because my solution is a bit faster than a model avg, I went wamer than guidance on Wed and cooler on Thu. This would be reflective of a quicker warm surge, but also quicker cold air advection. This would yield highs of 50-55 Wed and near 50 Thu. It should be noted that refinements are likely in this forecast until "game time".
There could be more unsettled wx the weekend after T-Day, with the GFS showing a coastal developing from a clipper. There is cold air in place, but the coastal develops too late for anything but maybe some flakes mixing in. In that setup, earlier development could result in snow. The GGEM is also showing a storm, but is slower and stronger, in that the low develops very near the NJ coast. This results in heavier precip, but a warmer solution and definitely all rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF holds the energy back over TX and basically says what storm? Given that that is an outlier and the ECMWF is biased toward holding energy back, that solution will be ignored. Prepare for more unsettled wx that weekend!
Now, let's take a look at systems expected to affect the region using graphics. I'll show Monday morning's light rain and the potential Thanksgiving storm. For the Mon morning rain, you can see, this rain is propagating NE, and most of it misses CT to the N or NW. However, there is a shot of steady light rain that does make it to the area.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from KCLT to well offshore. This high will translate offshore overnight and set up a return flow of warmer air for the next two days.
Tonight: A much warmer night across the area. I don't think we radiate all that well as bands of cirrus clouds continue to streak into the area. For that reason, I went close to guidance and did not undercut as I would normally on a radiative night. Expect lows from 30-35 in the NW Hills to the low 40s along the S coast.
Tomorrow: It is unclear exactly how sunny it will be, especially in light of today. Today was forecast by nearly all models to be mostly sunny and is verifiying partly to mostly cloudy. Therefore, I went just close to, or just below, temp guidance with uncertainty in cloud cover. Still, it will be much warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: One more day of above normal temps on Sat. Forecast reasoning and methodology is the same as Fri. Once again, uncertain of how much sun we actually get vs. modeled, so went close to, or just a smidge below guidance. Expect temps in the upper 50s for highs.
Forecast confidence decreases a bit heading into Sun. For now, will keep the day dry, but there has been a discernable trend towards faster with this system. Either way, Sunday should see increasing cloudiness and turn more "raw" as high pressure up N presses cooler air into the region. I went way below guidance on Sunday's highs, due to clouds and strong NE flow. Temps probably don't rise much from AM lows. Xpct highs in the mid 40s.
A shot of light rain is likely Sunday night into early Monday, perhaps even ending with a burst of moderate rain. This may linger for a few hrs Mon morn, otherwise expect clearing skies on Mon. Temp guidance looks very warm to me for Mon, esp given that a) we may not clear until the 2nd half of the day and B) there is cold air advection. Therefore, I went quite a bit under guidance. Temps may very well just hover in the low to mid 40s from Sat night to Mon afternoon.
For Tuesday, I largely went very close to temp guidance, or just a smidge cooler here and there. Good cold air advection in place, if only temporary. Clouds begin to increase by nightfall ahead of the next system. Temps once again should be in the 40-45 degree range.
A large and moist system is slated to affect the area the day before and Turkey Day. Right now, the evolution looks something like one low driving up into PIT and another forming offshore. In complex situations like this, a lot of questions generally arise, such as how far north the primary low gets before transferring its energy and where exactly the coastal low begins to bomb out. Unfortunately, from this distance in time, there tend to be more questions than answers. For now, expect unsettled wx most, if not all, of Wed, and at least part of Thu, until we get closer and can hone in on the details.
It should be noted that the GGEM (Canadian) model is very different in evolution with this system. showing light, overrunning rains early on Wed, then a break, and then heavier rain on Turkey Day as a low moves straight up the Del River.
The ECMWF seems to be an outlier, with no overrunning moisture at all on Wed, then has the low track basically over NJ on Turkey Day, which is similar to the GGEM solution. Bottom line, expect unsettled wx those two days.
Because my solution is a bit faster than a model avg, I went wamer than guidance on Wed and cooler on Thu. This would be reflective of a quicker warm surge, but also quicker cold air advection. This would yield highs of 50-55 Wed and near 50 Thu. It should be noted that refinements are likely in this forecast until "game time".
There could be more unsettled wx the weekend after T-Day, with the GFS showing a coastal developing from a clipper. There is cold air in place, but the coastal develops too late for anything but maybe some flakes mixing in. In that setup, earlier development could result in snow. The GGEM is also showing a storm, but is slower and stronger, in that the low develops very near the NJ coast. This results in heavier precip, but a warmer solution and definitely all rain. Meanwhile, the ECMWF holds the energy back over TX and basically says what storm? Given that that is an outlier and the ECMWF is biased toward holding energy back, that solution will be ignored. Prepare for more unsettled wx that weekend!
Now, let's take a look at systems expected to affect the region using graphics. I'll show Monday morning's light rain and the potential Thanksgiving storm. For the Mon morning rain, you can see, this rain is propagating NE, and most of it misses CT to the N or NW. However, there is a shot of steady light rain that does make it to the area.
Now for the Thanksgiving system, a low pressure system that strong over Orange County, NY, would surely produce heavy rain over our area, and is modeled here.
Anyway, that's all for now! I'll prob see you some time next week!
-GP!
-GP!
