It certainly feels like Oct today across the area, a few days early. However, unsettled and warmer wx is on the horizon.
Currently: High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast is in control. Low pressure over Nova Scotia is keeping the winds up a bit today, and adding even a touch more chill to the air.
Tonight: Tonight will easily be the coldest night of the early fall season so far. The combo of fresh cool air and good radiative conditions will allow temps to fall quickly. I have gone a couple deg under guidance w/lows generally in the 40s. I would not be surprised to see a few 30s show up in the normally colder spots.
Tomorrow: Guidance temps look good and generally accepted w/a few minor tweaks, such as raising a deg or two in the I 91 corridor, due to downsloping. A beautiful day w/highs in the upper 60s and plenty of sun.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sunny and turning warmer by Sat. Temp guidance looks absolutely mint and will not touch it. Highs 70-75 throughout the state, maybe a 76 or 77 shows up along I 91.
Long Term: This is where the wx starts to get more complicated to fcst. Hey, it was bound to happen some time!
Sun: Models have trended slower with overrunning pcpn, not reaching NYC area until mid evening, so we should stay high and dry Sun. I could be too low on temps, but I don't want to go too high yet. Clouds may increase earlier, the flow could turn onshore- too many things can happen to put a damper on temps, that I didn't want to go too warm yet. So I have low 70s in the fcst, although that may need to be adjusted upward.
Mon: GFS has come in pretty light w/QPF w/our overrunning sys. However, the NBM is showing decent probs and QPF. I won't go all in, but I will go w/60ish POPs for this time period. I am not going to try to time it too much, but it could be more early, then late again, w/a gap in between. For now, due to clouds and rain, went way under temp guidance, and I have mostly upper 60s for highs. However, any breaks of sun could raise those temps.
Tue: No real trigger for precip, but w/a frontal boundary nearby, hard not to keep slight POPs in the fcst. Generally OVC or mostly cloudy, not expecting much sun. Guidance temps look fairly reasonable, just made a few adjustments for continuity, so I have upper 60s again for most highs.
Wed: Continued generally mostly OVC skies. Deep layer onshore flow, so temps not going far. This onshore flow should at least temporarily keep us stable, so removed any precip from fcst here. Guidance temps look good, so I have mid to upper 60s throughout the state.
Thu: Could see a few breaks of sun. However, deep layer onshore flow still keeps temps from going very far. Looks like upper 60s S coast to near 70 everywhere else for temps. Guidance temps look fine and are accepted as is.
Beyond here is where a long-duration powerful system is possible, although details are very hard to follow at this point. There is decent agreement, given the lead time, that some type of system may try to form near the coast and trudge slowly up the coast. It could contain deep tropical moisture and may even be tropical or subtropical in origin. Stay tuned!
Only one graphic today, since the other system is so far away. This map is valid Mon eve. I feel this is a good map to share, as you can see precip, moving SW To NE, split into two pieces. Other models do have heavier and more solid precip, so we'll see.
Currently: High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Coast is in control. Low pressure over Nova Scotia is keeping the winds up a bit today, and adding even a touch more chill to the air.
Tonight: Tonight will easily be the coldest night of the early fall season so far. The combo of fresh cool air and good radiative conditions will allow temps to fall quickly. I have gone a couple deg under guidance w/lows generally in the 40s. I would not be surprised to see a few 30s show up in the normally colder spots.
Tomorrow: Guidance temps look good and generally accepted w/a few minor tweaks, such as raising a deg or two in the I 91 corridor, due to downsloping. A beautiful day w/highs in the upper 60s and plenty of sun.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sunny and turning warmer by Sat. Temp guidance looks absolutely mint and will not touch it. Highs 70-75 throughout the state, maybe a 76 or 77 shows up along I 91.
Long Term: This is where the wx starts to get more complicated to fcst. Hey, it was bound to happen some time!
Sun: Models have trended slower with overrunning pcpn, not reaching NYC area until mid evening, so we should stay high and dry Sun. I could be too low on temps, but I don't want to go too high yet. Clouds may increase earlier, the flow could turn onshore- too many things can happen to put a damper on temps, that I didn't want to go too warm yet. So I have low 70s in the fcst, although that may need to be adjusted upward.
Mon: GFS has come in pretty light w/QPF w/our overrunning sys. However, the NBM is showing decent probs and QPF. I won't go all in, but I will go w/60ish POPs for this time period. I am not going to try to time it too much, but it could be more early, then late again, w/a gap in between. For now, due to clouds and rain, went way under temp guidance, and I have mostly upper 60s for highs. However, any breaks of sun could raise those temps.
Tue: No real trigger for precip, but w/a frontal boundary nearby, hard not to keep slight POPs in the fcst. Generally OVC or mostly cloudy, not expecting much sun. Guidance temps look fairly reasonable, just made a few adjustments for continuity, so I have upper 60s again for most highs.
Wed: Continued generally mostly OVC skies. Deep layer onshore flow, so temps not going far. This onshore flow should at least temporarily keep us stable, so removed any precip from fcst here. Guidance temps look good, so I have mid to upper 60s throughout the state.
Thu: Could see a few breaks of sun. However, deep layer onshore flow still keeps temps from going very far. Looks like upper 60s S coast to near 70 everywhere else for temps. Guidance temps look fine and are accepted as is.
Beyond here is where a long-duration powerful system is possible, although details are very hard to follow at this point. There is decent agreement, given the lead time, that some type of system may try to form near the coast and trudge slowly up the coast. It could contain deep tropical moisture and may even be tropical or subtropical in origin. Stay tuned!
Only one graphic today, since the other system is so far away. This map is valid Mon eve. I feel this is a good map to share, as you can see precip, moving SW To NE, split into two pieces. Other models do have heavier and more solid precip, so we'll see.
Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
