Good afternoon from SCW.
I'm pressed for time so I'll make it quick. I'm updating the snow map just slightly for interior CT. The guidance, with the exception of one high resolution model has been juicing up our clipper. With the potential for good ratios, I wanted to raise the floor and ceiling just a tad for interior CT. I strongly considered moving coastal CT to a 1-3" zone, but I want to show respect for the possibility of a little more surface warmth overnight given the track of the clipper.
I'm pressed for time so I'll make it quick. I'm updating the snow map just slightly for interior CT. The guidance, with the exception of one high resolution model has been juicing up our clipper. With the potential for good ratios, I wanted to raise the floor and ceiling just a tad for interior CT. I strongly considered moving coastal CT to a 1-3" zone, but I want to show respect for the possibility of a little more surface warmth overnight given the track of the clipper.
Above: the updated snow map, taking interior CT from a 1-3" zone to a 2-4" zone and keeping far southern CT in a coating-2" zone.
Slight tweaks to the first call forecast below.
Timing
Across guidance this is a fast mover. I expect snow to begin from west to east, with possible mixing at the shore, between 6-10pm. The worst of the system happens later in the nighttime hours, probably between 10pm and 1am, with the snow done long before sunrise. This hasn't changed.
Snow Accumulation
I'm still less than enthusiastic about a C-2" zone, but it's the best forecast. While the temperatures are colder at the surface than they were during the last snow event, which was a bust for the shoreline and especially in SE CT, there's still guidance that brings warmth to southern CT as the center of the clipper tracks to our north. The greatest chance of a coating (something measurable but less than an inch) is right along the immediate coast, and a little further inland in SE CT. Because of the temperature gradient that's possible, I would expect a snowfall gradient as well in this zone. It could be a coating at the coast with just a few miles inland a more significant snowfall. I also think ratios may be a bit lower in coastal CT.
For inland areas, this is pretty straightforward. It'll be cold enough. We'll get a good ratio powdery snow. We just need the lift that's depicted on the guidance to come to fruition, and I believe it does. I contemplated a 2-4" zone last night, and the data today suggests it's worth issuing now. The concern I have is for western CT here, where the snow may not be as "heavy" early on. That said, in eastern CT there is the possibility of a minor overperformer. Most likely end up with 2-3" with some spots at 4-5 if things break right.
Impact
With more snow inland, it looks closer to a moderate event. There's still no real power outage or wind thread, hence no formal forecast for it. This is happening later on Sunday, mostly after dark, with the worst during the late night hours and the system done before sunrise. The track of the system will also eventually introduce mild air into the region, and Monday looks warm. I think there's a greater chance of delays now, especially if the higher end of the forecast range is hit.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Slight tweaks to the first call forecast below.
Timing
Across guidance this is a fast mover. I expect snow to begin from west to east, with possible mixing at the shore, between 6-10pm. The worst of the system happens later in the nighttime hours, probably between 10pm and 1am, with the snow done long before sunrise. This hasn't changed.
Snow Accumulation
I'm still less than enthusiastic about a C-2" zone, but it's the best forecast. While the temperatures are colder at the surface than they were during the last snow event, which was a bust for the shoreline and especially in SE CT, there's still guidance that brings warmth to southern CT as the center of the clipper tracks to our north. The greatest chance of a coating (something measurable but less than an inch) is right along the immediate coast, and a little further inland in SE CT. Because of the temperature gradient that's possible, I would expect a snowfall gradient as well in this zone. It could be a coating at the coast with just a few miles inland a more significant snowfall. I also think ratios may be a bit lower in coastal CT.
For inland areas, this is pretty straightforward. It'll be cold enough. We'll get a good ratio powdery snow. We just need the lift that's depicted on the guidance to come to fruition, and I believe it does. I contemplated a 2-4" zone last night, and the data today suggests it's worth issuing now. The concern I have is for western CT here, where the snow may not be as "heavy" early on. That said, in eastern CT there is the possibility of a minor overperformer. Most likely end up with 2-3" with some spots at 4-5 if things break right.
Impact
With more snow inland, it looks closer to a moderate event. There's still no real power outage or wind thread, hence no formal forecast for it. This is happening later on Sunday, mostly after dark, with the worst during the late night hours and the system done before sunrise. The track of the system will also eventually introduce mild air into the region, and Monday looks warm. I think there's a greater chance of delays now, especially if the higher end of the forecast range is hit.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
