A VERY HAPPY NATIONAL WEATHERPERSON’S DAY TO YOU FROM FROM SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WEATHER! Thank you to all who have sent us reports, the network of trained spotters, coop observers, meterologists, researchers, forecasters, hobbyists, and anyone who has or had a hand in making meterology what it is. We salute you and thank you for your hard work! Now, onto the discussion.
Synopsis: A very cold and active pattern will continue. Very cold temperatures are expected tonight and tomorrow. Another winter storm system will affect the state Sunday into Monday, with more colder than normal weather to follow.
Discussion:
An Alberta Clipper system brought accumulating snow to much of the state this morning. It also brought with it an important cold front, which will bring in some of the coldest air of the season with it. Temperatures will rival the coldest night of the season and tomorrow’s temperatures will be well below normal. Here’s a look at the expected lows tomorrow morning from the short range high res HRRR model. Notice the highest expected low in the state is only around three degrees! Combine this with breezy conditions, and it's going to feel downright cold outside, with wind chills in the negative teens for most. As a result, the NWS has issued a Wind Chill Advisory for the northern four counties and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the southern four counties to cover this threat. Make sure to cover all exposed skin and limit time outdoors until it warms up as the morning goes on!
Synopsis: A very cold and active pattern will continue. Very cold temperatures are expected tonight and tomorrow. Another winter storm system will affect the state Sunday into Monday, with more colder than normal weather to follow.
Discussion:
An Alberta Clipper system brought accumulating snow to much of the state this morning. It also brought with it an important cold front, which will bring in some of the coldest air of the season with it. Temperatures will rival the coldest night of the season and tomorrow’s temperatures will be well below normal. Here’s a look at the expected lows tomorrow morning from the short range high res HRRR model. Notice the highest expected low in the state is only around three degrees! Combine this with breezy conditions, and it's going to feel downright cold outside, with wind chills in the negative teens for most. As a result, the NWS has issued a Wind Chill Advisory for the northern four counties and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the southern four counties to cover this threat. Make sure to cover all exposed skin and limit time outdoors until it warms up as the morning goes on!
Temperatures will moderate somewhat on Saturday(but will still remain at below normal levels) as winds veer off to the Southwest, with high pressure moving offshore. Some light snow or flurry activity is possible in the northern parts of the state later in the day, but accumulations should be little to none.
More widespread precipitation should move into the state during the day on Sunday. There are still a lot of uncertainties regarding the ultimate evolution of the storm system slated to affect the state into Monday. First off, Sunday’s precipitation will be from overrunning- which means warm air moving over the cold dome at the surface. With strong high pressure locked in to our north, it appears highly unlikely that anybody in the state goes above freezing at the surface. However, temperatures higher up in the atmosphere could rise above freezing in the southern half of the state. This would cause the precipitation to fall as a dangerous icy mix of sleet and freezing rain. Further north, mainly snow would be likely. However, this solution is far from locked in. If the models trend further south, a colder solution with more snow for the state, but perhaps less precipitation in the far north, would result. A track further north would bring the risk of ice further north with it. At this time, however, due to the amount of cold air entrenched at the surface and Connecticut’s location relative to the storm, plain rain does not appear likely anywhere. We’ll continue to watch the guidance and trends and as soon as we can try to clarify some of the details related to precipitation type and timing, hopefully tomorrow night along with a first call map.
More widespread precipitation should move into the state during the day on Sunday. There are still a lot of uncertainties regarding the ultimate evolution of the storm system slated to affect the state into Monday. First off, Sunday’s precipitation will be from overrunning- which means warm air moving over the cold dome at the surface. With strong high pressure locked in to our north, it appears highly unlikely that anybody in the state goes above freezing at the surface. However, temperatures higher up in the atmosphere could rise above freezing in the southern half of the state. This would cause the precipitation to fall as a dangerous icy mix of sleet and freezing rain. Further north, mainly snow would be likely. However, this solution is far from locked in. If the models trend further south, a colder solution with more snow for the state, but perhaps less precipitation in the far north, would result. A track further north would bring the risk of ice further north with it. At this time, however, due to the amount of cold air entrenched at the surface and Connecticut’s location relative to the storm, plain rain does not appear likely anywhere. We’ll continue to watch the guidance and trends and as soon as we can try to clarify some of the details related to precipitation type and timing, hopefully tomorrow night along with a first call map.
Later Sunday night into at least part of Monday, precipitation will become heavier at times, due to a coastal low forming and more moisture being drawn in from the Atlantic. For now, it appears that the track of this coastal low will remain far enough offshore so that its effects on the region would be minimal, just enhancing some moisture off the Atlantic. This means that periods of snow would continue in the north, ultimately producing significant accumulations, while ice would continue, also with significant accumulations possible near the coast. However, the effects of this coastal low also remain highly uncertain, since they are also dependent on the same upper air pattern that makes the first part of the system uncertain. If the coastal tracks even further away, precipitation would be much lighter and pull out faster on Monday, leaving most of the state with just some light freezing drizzle. If the coastal low tracks closer, precipitation would be heavier and the thermal profile would also trend colder, so precipitation would likely change from an icy mix to snow along the south coast. Precipitation would also be heavier on Monday with a closer track of the coastal low. No matter what happens, it appears a significant winter weather event will affect the state Sunday and Monday… stay tuned!
For Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, fairly tranquil weather is likely, although some snow could linger into the morning hours, especially over eastern portions, if the coastal low tracks closer. Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal levels on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will feel warmer, due to how cold its been!
By next Thursday, another system, an Alberta Clipper system, should bring a shot of light snow to the state, followed by more bitterly cold Arctic air! Winter is here and it isn’t going anywhere any time soon!
Look for our next update tomorrow evening and potentially a first call map as well depending on forecasters confidence. Until then, thanks for reading SCW!
-GP
For Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, fairly tranquil weather is likely, although some snow could linger into the morning hours, especially over eastern portions, if the coastal low tracks closer. Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal levels on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will feel warmer, due to how cold its been!
By next Thursday, another system, an Alberta Clipper system, should bring a shot of light snow to the state, followed by more bitterly cold Arctic air! Winter is here and it isn’t going anywhere any time soon!
Look for our next update tomorrow evening and potentially a first call map as well depending on forecasters confidence. Until then, thanks for reading SCW!
-GP
