Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
As mentioned in the last few forecasts, January was not a wintry month. We had a well above normal January in terms of temperature and well below in snowfall. The last two weeks of the month featured multiple winter weather chances at medium range that turned to a rain event and a total whiff.
This week will start out warmer than normal, but we will have another shot at a winter weather event Wednesday evening through potentially Friday. Unfortunately, like the other potential we saw in January, this could easily trend into a rain event.
As mentioned in the last few forecasts, January was not a wintry month. We had a well above normal January in terms of temperature and well below in snowfall. The last two weeks of the month featured multiple winter weather chances at medium range that turned to a rain event and a total whiff.
This week will start out warmer than normal, but we will have another shot at a winter weather event Wednesday evening through potentially Friday. Unfortunately, like the other potential we saw in January, this could easily trend into a rain event.
Above: a summary of temperature departures for the continental US for the month of January (through the 30th). That's a torch, folks.
Monday-Tuesday
First tonight. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers, but we're not expecting much. We also expect foggy conditions in spots, so be careful on the roads as fog rolls in and temperatures drop around freezing. The start of the work week looks quiet enough, with tomorrow featuring cloudy and breezy conditions but no real precipitation chances. We should have highs in the upper 40s for many, which is well above normal this time of year.
Tuesday looks like we could have some showers around, as a weak warm front gets close to the area. It'll be worth having an umbrella, but you are unlikely to need it all day.
Wednesday
Wednesday looks to be the first period to watch. The aforementioned boundary will remain nearby, so we will have additional shower chances. We will need to watch how cold air pushes in to the region. If we can get colder air in sooner, we may see mixed precipitation at some point on Wednesday. This afternoon's European model run showed light mixed precipitation Wednesday morning.
Thursday-Friday
This is the main period to watch. We will see multiple waves form and traverse the region. We see the potential for a cold air damming (CAD) event, where we have colder air funneled in as precipitation overruns the colder air. This could create a winter weather event, but beware.
We've seen trends against colder air being in place this season, and although every forecast is different, with the upper level pattern here a more amplified (stronger) system could keep us as mostly rain. At this time, that's where I am hedging, but we're still relatively far out right now. Stay tuned.
Monday-Tuesday
First tonight. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers, but we're not expecting much. We also expect foggy conditions in spots, so be careful on the roads as fog rolls in and temperatures drop around freezing. The start of the work week looks quiet enough, with tomorrow featuring cloudy and breezy conditions but no real precipitation chances. We should have highs in the upper 40s for many, which is well above normal this time of year.
Tuesday looks like we could have some showers around, as a weak warm front gets close to the area. It'll be worth having an umbrella, but you are unlikely to need it all day.
Wednesday
Wednesday looks to be the first period to watch. The aforementioned boundary will remain nearby, so we will have additional shower chances. We will need to watch how cold air pushes in to the region. If we can get colder air in sooner, we may see mixed precipitation at some point on Wednesday. This afternoon's European model run showed light mixed precipitation Wednesday morning.
Thursday-Friday
This is the main period to watch. We will see multiple waves form and traverse the region. We see the potential for a cold air damming (CAD) event, where we have colder air funneled in as precipitation overruns the colder air. This could create a winter weather event, but beware.
We've seen trends against colder air being in place this season, and although every forecast is different, with the upper level pattern here a more amplified (stronger) system could keep us as mostly rain. At this time, that's where I am hedging, but we're still relatively far out right now. Stay tuned.
Latest GFS run depicting the possible overrunning/CAD event. Do not take this verbatim, this is merely an illustration of the potential. GFS surface temperatures will be inaccurate.
Saturday-Sunday
The start of the weekend should be relatively quiet, but the pattern looks active. There may be more activity next weekend, but for now, I will not introduce high precipitation odds.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow mix. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Thursday: Mixed precipitation changing to rain late. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Friday: Rain changing to mixed precipitation and snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Saturday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the mid 30s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
The start of the weekend should be relatively quiet, but the pattern looks active. There may be more activity next weekend, but for now, I will not introduce high precipitation odds.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow mix. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Thursday: Mixed precipitation changing to rain late. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Friday: Rain changing to mixed precipitation and snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Saturday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the mid 30s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
