Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today was cloudy in some parts of the state, with sun breaking out in others and cool conditions. Temperatures around the state ranged from the low to mid 30s inland, to upper 30s and lower 40s at the shore. A few snow showers did make it to the area in association with some lake effect snow streamers from Lake Ontario. As we head through this evening, skies should remain partly cloudy until about midnight with clouds moving in toward dawn. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s inland to the lower 30s at the shore, temperatures will stay steady and rise slightly as we head toward morning. I mentioned clouds will move in later this evening, and that is in advance of the next weather maker we have been talking about for a few days now.
Today was cloudy in some parts of the state, with sun breaking out in others and cool conditions. Temperatures around the state ranged from the low to mid 30s inland, to upper 30s and lower 40s at the shore. A few snow showers did make it to the area in association with some lake effect snow streamers from Lake Ontario. As we head through this evening, skies should remain partly cloudy until about midnight with clouds moving in toward dawn. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s inland to the lower 30s at the shore, temperatures will stay steady and rise slightly as we head toward morning. I mentioned clouds will move in later this evening, and that is in advance of the next weather maker we have been talking about for a few days now.
Last night we had issued our first call snowfall map and discussion for the 12/29 system, and much has changed since we published it. Timing still looks pretty much on par for this storm, early Thursday morning through Thursday evening, as well as the shoreline getting basically no snow from this storm. Dynamics have trended in a warmer direction with this storm, as it looks to intensify earlier and track closer to the coast, thus snowfall totals will need to be brought down quite considerably in all areas, especially northeastern Connecticut. We had a 4-8 inch snowfall zone in northern Tolland and Windham counties on thoughts that these places would have just enough elevation as well as close proximity to the rapidly developing, or bombing low pressure system. Our thinking was these areas would ‘cash’ in on the best dynamics, and this does no longer looks to be the case. Models have basically “caved” to an idea that the storm will intensify very rapidly, thus bringing the low center very close to Connecticut and warmer at the 925 through the surface level of the atmosphere to above freezing in most of Connecticut, especially in southern and eastern Connecticut. What this translates to is less emphasis on frozen precipitation, and more on liquid precipitation. All areas should start off as snow, most areas should rapidly change to rain as the area of low pressure intensifies just south and east of Long Island Sound. Temps should rise steadily into the upper 30s and 40s at the shore, and to the mid 30s inland, coupled with temperatures at the 925 level of the atmosphere, that spells rain for most of Connecticut. I'm looking at the possibility of some backside snows as the storm pulls away on Thursday night, but I’m not expecting much, if any, additional accumulations.
As seen on the map, snow totals go from 0 at the shore in southeastern Connecticut, to about 4 and some spot 5 inch totals in far northwestern Connecticut. Yes, again, the Litchfield Hills are the “jackpot” area for the state, as they will hold the cold air the longest from the surface to the mid-levels. For the rest of the state, this looks to be nothing more than a nuisance event, but even a trace of snow on the roads can lead to some problems, so still be careful driving in these areas. As far as other hazards are concerned, rain may be the biggest issue over most of the state, looks like a solid half to 3/4s of an inch of rain will fall when all is said and done. Rain could be quite heavy at times especially during Thursday afternoon in eastern and southeastern Connecticut. As far as wind goes, it could get breezy on Thursday night as winds shift back to being out of the north and northwest. Expect winds of around 20- 30 mph during this period.
Looking to Friday and beyond, a frontal passage comes through on the back side of the departing low pressure system. Winds stay gusty during the day on Friday due to the pressure gradient and temps will again drop statewide, with the chance of an isolated snow shower. Over the weekend, we are watching for a weak “clipper” type system to influence the weather on New Years Day. It looks to be some snow and rain showers, and at this time does not look major. Also being watched is the potential for another system for later next Monday, and currently this event looks more wet than white. In the longer term, we are watching for a pattern change to a stormier, snowier period, which looks to take place by around the week of the 9th. We will have more in depth analysis on this period in future discussions.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read this discussion! There will be periodical updates during the day on Thursday to keep you abreast of all happenings with this storm system. We at Southern Connecticut Weather appreciate being your trusted source for all things Connecticut weather. Stay tuned on Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX!- TW
