Good afternoon to you from SCW!
Since we last wrote yesterday, we have unfortunately seen the warmer set of solutions for tomorrows storm system become dominant in the guidance, and so have lowered snow totals a bit from our initial forecast yesterday. You can see our newly revised map below.
Since we last wrote yesterday, we have unfortunately seen the warmer set of solutions for tomorrows storm system become dominant in the guidance, and so have lowered snow totals a bit from our initial forecast yesterday. You can see our newly revised map below.
The biggest change to the forecast is that we expanded the zone of little to no snowfall to cover all of southern Connecticut and a large portion of eastern Connecticut as well. With the warm push in the low levels becoming more prominent, areas closer to the storm will see the most warm intrusion, and so it's going to be hard to get more than a quick coating on the front end and a chance at a quick accumulation from any back end snows that develop. Some of the guidance, in particular the 3km NAM(shown below) and the RGEM show a potent backlash band that would bring a period of heavy snow to almost all of the state, but I've seen these scenarios modeled many times and it's not often that they actually work out. Perhaps this one will and so I've left an area of up to 2" in the forecast for this zone to account for the possibility, but I think a coating to an inch at best is the more likely scenario. Otherwise, the forecast remains similar to yesterday - we trimmed the edges of the 3-6" zone slightly but I still think the same general area of the Litchfield hills and possibly northern CT river valley is the best area to remain all snow. It's possible that we'll see a solution where heavier precipitation at the start and end of the event gets some of northeast CT past the 3" mark, but I'm not confident enough in that solution compared to the warmer look to revise the map accordingly and so we'll leave it where it is for now.
Here's the 3km NAM I referenced above - should this scenario verify, there will be a brief period of very heavy snow for all tomorrow morning as the strong dynamics in the band would be enough to flush out any warmth at the surface.
Here's the 3km NAM I referenced above - should this scenario verify, there will be a brief period of very heavy snow for all tomorrow morning as the strong dynamics in the band would be enough to flush out any warmth at the surface.
While we can't rule out the possibility of a death band forming like the NAM shows, the more likely scenario remains similar to what we've been seeing; snow moves in very early tomorrow morning, quickly changes to rain from south to north in all areas except the Litchfield hills, and then rain possibly changes back to snow as the low moves east and colder air comes in. We should have all precipitation out of the state by the mid-morning hours at the latest and so travel within the state should be fine by the afternoon hours. However, if you're heading north, interior MA as well as VT, NH, ME and upstate NY are expected to see a much more significant snow event, so check local forecasts for your route before heading out tomorrow. One positive side effect of the storm becoming wetter here is that it will increase snow totals in ski country; between the storm yesterday and tomorrows snow, northeast ski areas are set up for a great Christmas week!
The other thing that's worth pointing out about this event is the wind potential. Strong cold air advection on the backside of the system will allow for some gusty winds to develop later in the day; wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range are likely with an outside shot at 50+. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire state by the NWS to cover this risk.
Here's a look at the forecast winds from the GFS and at the SCW impact scale for this event - only change from yesterday was to upgrade the impacts from wind from moderate to high as some strong gusts could cause minor tree damage and perhaps a couple of very scattered power outages.
The other thing that's worth pointing out about this event is the wind potential. Strong cold air advection on the backside of the system will allow for some gusty winds to develop later in the day; wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range are likely with an outside shot at 50+. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire state by the NWS to cover this risk.
Here's a look at the forecast winds from the GFS and at the SCW impact scale for this event - only change from yesterday was to upgrade the impacts from wind from moderate to high as some strong gusts could cause minor tree damage and perhaps a couple of very scattered power outages.
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Finally, while this system may not bring the White Christmas for all that we were hoping for, we still wish you a wonderfully merry Christmas with your loved ones! We certainly hope that you enjoy the time with friends and family tomorrow and that good fun is had by all. We will be on a reduced posting schedule from now through the end of the year as we will be partaking in the festivities as well, but rest assured that if an event pops up on the guidance we'll be talking about it and keeping you informed.
Until then, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Until then, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
