Good evening to you from SCW!
Let’s cut right to the chase. We are increasing snow totals for tomorrow across the state due to a western trend over the past couple of model cycles that have brought the edge of the heaviest snow westward into eastern Connecticut while the moderate snow has made its way west into most of the state. Our new snowmap is below.
Let’s cut right to the chase. We are increasing snow totals for tomorrow across the state due to a western trend over the past couple of model cycles that have brought the edge of the heaviest snow westward into eastern Connecticut while the moderate snow has made its way west into most of the state. Our new snowmap is below.
Let’s take a quick look at the models to illustrate the change. The series of images below is the last five runs of the GFS, from 18z yesterday to 18z today, all valid for 2 PM tomorrow.
You can see a consistent trend west with both the main band of extremely heavy snow (that is now over the Boston area) and the moderate to heavy snow that is now covering most of the state. Total QPF on most models is now in the .5”-1” range across most of the state, with heavier amounts to the east and lighter amounts to the west. At a 10:1 ratio, that would result in a general 5-10” of snow, which is now the going forecast for the majority of the state. I have increased amounts in the eastern portion of the state as I think they have the best chance to get into some of the more extreme banding that’s shown on some of the guidance; overall I would expect most totals in that area to be in the 8-12” range with some localized totals of up to 16” likely where the best banding forms. In the far western portion of the state, most guidance shows precipitation tapering to light snow by lunchtime or so tomorrow as the storm begins to move NE, so I went with lower amounts there as a result.
The wildcard for this forecast is that there is strong frontogenesis in the midlevels and the lift generated there will result in a narrow and relatively strong band of snow on the western edge of the system. Wherever that band sets up will likely exceed the forecast snow totals by a fairly substantial amount, but where it sets up is very much unclear; all of the guidance seems to have it’s own projection for where we’ll see it. As such, it’s difficult to adjust the forecast too much to account for it as it’s going to be a fairly small area that sees a drastic increase in totals, so the best thing I can do is warn you of the possibility and tell you to not be surprised if you end up with 16” of snow off a 5-10” or 3-6” forecast. As we start to see the band develop tomorrow, we’ll let you know where it’s forming and who can expect to see higher totals as a result. That said, the net impact will be similar regardless of how much snow you get; travel conditions tomorrow will be difficult and I expect most schools in the state to be closed.
Here’s the NAM’s representation of the fronto band – it places the heavy snows in or just east of the I91 corridor, while other guidance is further east over Tolland/Middlesex counties or even further west in the route 7 corridor. We’ll see where it ends up!
The wildcard for this forecast is that there is strong frontogenesis in the midlevels and the lift generated there will result in a narrow and relatively strong band of snow on the western edge of the system. Wherever that band sets up will likely exceed the forecast snow totals by a fairly substantial amount, but where it sets up is very much unclear; all of the guidance seems to have it’s own projection for where we’ll see it. As such, it’s difficult to adjust the forecast too much to account for it as it’s going to be a fairly small area that sees a drastic increase in totals, so the best thing I can do is warn you of the possibility and tell you to not be surprised if you end up with 16” of snow off a 5-10” or 3-6” forecast. As we start to see the band develop tomorrow, we’ll let you know where it’s forming and who can expect to see higher totals as a result. That said, the net impact will be similar regardless of how much snow you get; travel conditions tomorrow will be difficult and I expect most schools in the state to be closed.
Here’s the NAM’s representation of the fronto band – it places the heavy snows in or just east of the I91 corridor, while other guidance is further east over Tolland/Middlesex counties or even further west in the route 7 corridor. We’ll see where it ends up!
Otherwise, the timing for tomorrow remains largely the same. Light snow breaks out tonight after midnight from SW – NE, becoming heavy later in the night and into Tuesday morning. Moderate to heavy snow for most through the morning rush hour before far western areas begin to taper towards light snow. Otherwise, moderate to heavy snow continues for most of the day, becoming more banded as we move into the afternoon, before snow finally tapers off after the evening commute. If you can avoid travel tomorrow, I highly recommend it; leave the roads clear for the plows and those who must travel. I expect most schools in the state to close.
With the movement of the storm westward comes gustier winds; while winds shouldn’t hit the level required to cause widespread power outages and most of the weak trees/infrastructure got taken down by the previous two storms, I wouldn’t be surprised to see isolated to scattered power outages/damage as a result of the wind and heavy snow. Best chance for that will be in eastern areas.
Here’s the revised SCW impact scale for this event.
With the movement of the storm westward comes gustier winds; while winds shouldn’t hit the level required to cause widespread power outages and most of the weak trees/infrastructure got taken down by the previous two storms, I wouldn’t be surprised to see isolated to scattered power outages/damage as a result of the wind and heavy snow. Best chance for that will be in eastern areas.
Here’s the revised SCW impact scale for this event.
We’ll be online all day tomorrow and updating as needed. As always, we rely on your observations and reports to let us know how our forecast is doing on the ground, so please send them to us by commenting on our Facebook posts, tweeting us @SouthernCTWX, or emailing them to southernconnecticutweather@gmail.com.
Thank you for trusting SCW with your forecast for this storm and enjoy the snow!
-SA
Thank you for trusting SCW with your forecast for this storm and enjoy the snow!
-SA
