The weather pattern will finally turn into one that will be supportive of pleasant spring weather.
A chilly night is in store for the state tonight. In fact, most of the state will see low temperatures at or below freezing. Anyone with agricultural interests who has started early planting outdoors should probably bring their plants inside. Low temperatures will range in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in outlying valleys.
Tomorrow will be similar to the 2nd half of today- not the rainy and cold first half. With plenty of sun and light winds, high temperatures should range in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow Night into Thursday: Another fairly chilly night is in store for tomorrow night. Low temperatures should be in the 30s again. There is, in fact, a greater chance for outlying sections to be colder tomorrow night than tonight, with lighter winds and better radiational cooling conditions. On Thursday, we'll see another generally sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than those of tomorrow- in the mid to upper 50s.
Longer Term: The longer term period will feature fair weather, with generally warming trend. A cold front will approach at the end of the long term period, with a lot of uncertainty, but more on that later.
Friday: Another very similar day to the last couple. A chilly start, then a pleasant afternoon. With plenty of sun, lows in the low to mid 30s should warm to highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Very similar to Friday, if not just a touch warmer, with lows in the 30s and highs near 60.
Sunday: Continues to warm. Cooling sea breezes along the south coast may keep it 5 degrees cooler in the Southwest, to as much as ten degrees cooler in the Southeast. Lows near 40 and highs near 70 elsewhere.
Monday: This is where the picture becomes a little bit more complicated. There are two potential cold fronts approaching. One is a traditional style cold front, coming from the west. The other is a back door cold front, moving in from the north and northeast. The questions we still have at this point in time are: Which front becomes the dominant front, and this would then have an affect on the air mass behind it, ranging from warm and dry to cool and dry to cool and wet. Another question is the timing, which would have a large effect on Monday's temperatures. For now, we'll assume a period of unsettled weather, because they will be a cold frontal passage regardless of which cold front approaches the area. For now, given climatology, we'll go with a round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As for temperatures, we'll assume that the afternoon timing cuts a few degrees off high temperature potential,. and we'll go with highs in the mid 60s, after morning lows in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Models are showing the Pacific cold front to be the dominant front for now. So, at this point, we'll assume that is the case. However, from my experience as a meteorologist and living my entire life in the Northeastern United States, I know that models often don't pick up on the strength of a back door cold front until 48-60 hours before. So, while I can't go totally against a model consensus at Day 7, we should keep in mind that I would not be surprised to see the back door cold front gain more potential in future forecasts, especially with the modeled troughing off Eastern New England. But for now, I'll forecast clearing skies and pleasant weather, with lows near 40 and highs in the mid 60s.
In the longer range, most model guidance is indicating a fairly typical spring pattern of cool weather moderating to above normal temperatures as a high pressure system moves offshore, followed by a cold frontal passage, with a round of showers and thunderstorms and then cooler weather. However, it should be noted that some ensemble products do show more troughing developing in the Eastern United States in the longer range, say, after the 23rd of this month or so, which would promote more stormy and colder than normal weather if it verified.
Now, here's a look at a couple of maps. to explain this week's features in graphical format. First, here is a look at tonight's low temperatures, from the GFS model.
A chilly night is in store for the state tonight. In fact, most of the state will see low temperatures at or below freezing. Anyone with agricultural interests who has started early planting outdoors should probably bring their plants inside. Low temperatures will range in the 30s, but some 20s are possible in outlying valleys.
Tomorrow will be similar to the 2nd half of today- not the rainy and cold first half. With plenty of sun and light winds, high temperatures should range in the low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow Night into Thursday: Another fairly chilly night is in store for tomorrow night. Low temperatures should be in the 30s again. There is, in fact, a greater chance for outlying sections to be colder tomorrow night than tonight, with lighter winds and better radiational cooling conditions. On Thursday, we'll see another generally sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than those of tomorrow- in the mid to upper 50s.
Longer Term: The longer term period will feature fair weather, with generally warming trend. A cold front will approach at the end of the long term period, with a lot of uncertainty, but more on that later.
Friday: Another very similar day to the last couple. A chilly start, then a pleasant afternoon. With plenty of sun, lows in the low to mid 30s should warm to highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: Very similar to Friday, if not just a touch warmer, with lows in the 30s and highs near 60.
Sunday: Continues to warm. Cooling sea breezes along the south coast may keep it 5 degrees cooler in the Southwest, to as much as ten degrees cooler in the Southeast. Lows near 40 and highs near 70 elsewhere.
Monday: This is where the picture becomes a little bit more complicated. There are two potential cold fronts approaching. One is a traditional style cold front, coming from the west. The other is a back door cold front, moving in from the north and northeast. The questions we still have at this point in time are: Which front becomes the dominant front, and this would then have an affect on the air mass behind it, ranging from warm and dry to cool and dry to cool and wet. Another question is the timing, which would have a large effect on Monday's temperatures. For now, we'll assume a period of unsettled weather, because they will be a cold frontal passage regardless of which cold front approaches the area. For now, given climatology, we'll go with a round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. As for temperatures, we'll assume that the afternoon timing cuts a few degrees off high temperature potential,. and we'll go with highs in the mid 60s, after morning lows in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Models are showing the Pacific cold front to be the dominant front for now. So, at this point, we'll assume that is the case. However, from my experience as a meteorologist and living my entire life in the Northeastern United States, I know that models often don't pick up on the strength of a back door cold front until 48-60 hours before. So, while I can't go totally against a model consensus at Day 7, we should keep in mind that I would not be surprised to see the back door cold front gain more potential in future forecasts, especially with the modeled troughing off Eastern New England. But for now, I'll forecast clearing skies and pleasant weather, with lows near 40 and highs in the mid 60s.
In the longer range, most model guidance is indicating a fairly typical spring pattern of cool weather moderating to above normal temperatures as a high pressure system moves offshore, followed by a cold frontal passage, with a round of showers and thunderstorms and then cooler weather. However, it should be noted that some ensemble products do show more troughing developing in the Eastern United States in the longer range, say, after the 23rd of this month or so, which would promote more stormy and colder than normal weather if it verified.
Now, here's a look at a couple of maps. to explain this week's features in graphical format. First, here is a look at tonight's low temperatures, from the GFS model.
A couple of notes on this map. First, low temperatures will occur couple hours after this map. So you can slice off a couple of degrees. The freezing line is where the light blue and green colors meet. Taking off a few degrees. the freezing line gets to the middle of the state. Also, this model does not pick up well on the cooler temperatures in the normally colder locations, so take that into account, too! The next map is the same model's projection of high temperatures on Sunday.
Temperatures may turn out a degree or two warmer than what is shown on this map. You can see the entire state is in the 70s, with the exception of the normally colder Northwest Hills, and the immediate coasts.
That's all for now! Have a good evening!
GP!
That's all for now! Have a good evening!
GP!
