Good early early morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather! This discussion will be a bit abbreviated due to the fact that I’m writing it at 1 AM, but you’ll still get the general idea I hope, and if not, feel free to leave us a comment or a question and we’ll clarify for you.
A strong clipper system tracks SE out of Canada and across Pennsylvania to south of New England, where when it hits the ocean, redevelops into a strong coastal storm that clips our area with the precipitation shield. The wildcard in the forecast is how far south that system initially tracks, which then influences where the coastal system forms and hence how strong it is when it reaches our latitude. The further south it forms = the stronger it is at our latitude = the more snow we see.
When discarding the outlier in the UKMET, consensus is surprisingly strong on the models for a moderate snowfall featuring localized pockets of intense rates due to strong midlevel dynamics as well as very strong winds both during and after the storm. While this storm will likely not verify as a blizzard(three consecutive hours of visibility <=1/4 mile and wind gusts of >45 mph), near blizzard or blizzard conditions are likely, especially in eastern areas. Combine this with frigid temps, and you’ve got a recipe for one wintry storm!
Here’s our first thoughts as far as a forecast.
A strong clipper system tracks SE out of Canada and across Pennsylvania to south of New England, where when it hits the ocean, redevelops into a strong coastal storm that clips our area with the precipitation shield. The wildcard in the forecast is how far south that system initially tracks, which then influences where the coastal system forms and hence how strong it is when it reaches our latitude. The further south it forms = the stronger it is at our latitude = the more snow we see.
When discarding the outlier in the UKMET, consensus is surprisingly strong on the models for a moderate snowfall featuring localized pockets of intense rates due to strong midlevel dynamics as well as very strong winds both during and after the storm. While this storm will likely not verify as a blizzard(three consecutive hours of visibility <=1/4 mile and wind gusts of >45 mph), near blizzard or blizzard conditions are likely, especially in eastern areas. Combine this with frigid temps, and you’ve got a recipe for one wintry storm!
Here’s our first thoughts as far as a forecast.
As far as timing goes, snow moves in from west to east Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. We’ll see an intital burst, followed by a period of lighter snow or even perhaps a shutoff entirely, before steadier snow returns early Sunday morning as the CCB from the coastal impacts the area. Snow tapers off by early afternoon Sunday. This coastal wraparound is when eastern areas will be able to pull ahead of the rest of the state, and the net result is that they get the highest snow totals. However, the entire state is still looking at a plowable snowfall between the initial clipper and the coastal, and when combined with the very strong winds and drifting that will result from the snowpack and new snow, this event will feel much larger than the numbers may suggest.
Speaking of winds, here’s a look at max wind gusts from the 0z GFS model.
Speaking of winds, here’s a look at max wind gusts from the 0z GFS model.
This is showing us max wind gusts of between 40-50 knots from west to east, which when converted to miles, is approximately 45 to 55 miles per hour! That is more than enough wind to cause serious blowing and drifting of snow, as well as to keep visibilities down even when the intensity of the snow is very light. It will also, when combined with the cold airmass we have in place, make for widespread below zero windchills. Between the snow, the wind, and the cold, it’s going to feel downright arctic outside for much of Sunday.
As far as impacts go, expect difficult travel from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, potential power outages from strong winds, and reduced visibilities due to blowing and drifting snow. Windchills will also be cold enough for frostbite to develop on uncovered skin after a short period of time, so make sure to bundle up when you’re heading out to shovel.
We’ll have a final call and more details this evening or Saturday morning, but until then, thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
As far as impacts go, expect difficult travel from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, potential power outages from strong winds, and reduced visibilities due to blowing and drifting snow. Windchills will also be cold enough for frostbite to develop on uncovered skin after a short period of time, so make sure to bundle up when you’re heading out to shovel.
We’ll have a final call and more details this evening or Saturday morning, but until then, thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
