Good evening from SCW!
We’re tracking a system for tomorrow evening that until recently has looked like predominantly a rain event for the state. However, in the last few model cycles, we have begun to see guidance trend this system a bit cooler, resulting in some wintry impacts to the state. This will be shorter than our usual discussions due to time constraints on my end, but please ask us any questions you have and we’ll get back to you ASAP!
Here’s a look at the system on the high-res NAM. At first, we see light snow across the entire state, but warming temps in the boundary layer flip most over to rain as the heavier rates arrive. The exception is the NW hills, where elevation and latitude hold on just enough for a mostly if not all snow event there, and it is there where we could see plowable amounts.
We’re tracking a system for tomorrow evening that until recently has looked like predominantly a rain event for the state. However, in the last few model cycles, we have begun to see guidance trend this system a bit cooler, resulting in some wintry impacts to the state. This will be shorter than our usual discussions due to time constraints on my end, but please ask us any questions you have and we’ll get back to you ASAP!
Here’s a look at the system on the high-res NAM. At first, we see light snow across the entire state, but warming temps in the boundary layer flip most over to rain as the heavier rates arrive. The exception is the NW hills, where elevation and latitude hold on just enough for a mostly if not all snow event there, and it is there where we could see plowable amounts.
The guidance is generally in good agreement on QPF totals, with somewhere between a third and a half of an inch expected for most of the state. In areas where precip remains all snow, that translates to a 3-6” forecast, but rising boundary layer temps will likely keep snow amounts lower across the rest of the state. For most, I only am expecting a minor accumulation, with a coating to perhaps an inch or two possible before flipping to rain. The tricky zone is the foothills of NWCT and the hills of NECT. Verbatim on the guidance, they remain mostly rain as well, but I have a hard time believing that there won’t be at least some gradient zone, and so I’m going to go with 1-3” there for now. We’ll keep an eye on the models overnight and update tomorrow if needed.
Here’s that forecast in map form.
Here’s that forecast in map form.
As far as timing goes, we’re generally looking at precipitation breaking out west to east across the state during the early afternoon hours. I expect most to start as snow away from perhaps the immediate coastline. Snow then mixes with and changes to rain by early evening for all except the NW hills, and that boundary remains in place until around midnight or so when things may flip back to snow as the precip moves out.
We’re also watching the possibility for some intense snow squalls on Wednesday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. While not likely to produce significant accumulations, these critters can pack a punch, and create near whiteout conditions for a short period of time. We’ll talk more about these tomorrow should the potential still remain, but keep in mind that travel may temporarily become difficult then.
Finally, the big headline behind this storm is the cold that’s coming in. Projected highs for Thursday look to be only in the upper single digits to mid teens, and overnight lows should drop below zero for much of the state on Wednesday night. Well below normal temps stick around through at least the middle of the weekend. More to come on this in a full update tomorrow!
Thanks for reading SCW,
-SA
We’re also watching the possibility for some intense snow squalls on Wednesday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. While not likely to produce significant accumulations, these critters can pack a punch, and create near whiteout conditions for a short period of time. We’ll talk more about these tomorrow should the potential still remain, but keep in mind that travel may temporarily become difficult then.
Finally, the big headline behind this storm is the cold that’s coming in. Projected highs for Thursday look to be only in the upper single digits to mid teens, and overnight lows should drop below zero for much of the state on Wednesday night. Well below normal temps stick around through at least the middle of the weekend. More to come on this in a full update tomorrow!
Thanks for reading SCW,
-SA
