Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After an early start to fall in August, our fall so far has seen a pretty standard step down toward winter. Unlike recent years with blowtorches in October and 80s in November, we have been seasonable. In both September and October the respective months finished within one degree of normal. So far this November, we have been right within that same range.
We will get our first taste of winter in the week ahead, in the wake of the latest storm to bring rain to the region tonight and tomorrow. A big trough will dive into the eastern U.S., bringing with it our coldest temperatures of the season so far and for some...the first chance of snowflakes. Let's dive in.
After an early start to fall in August, our fall so far has seen a pretty standard step down toward winter. Unlike recent years with blowtorches in October and 80s in November, we have been seasonable. In both September and October the respective months finished within one degree of normal. So far this November, we have been right within that same range.
We will get our first taste of winter in the week ahead, in the wake of the latest storm to bring rain to the region tonight and tomorrow. A big trough will dive into the eastern U.S., bringing with it our coldest temperatures of the season so far and for some...the first chance of snowflakes. Let's dive in.
Above: the 18z GFS surface temperature anomaly for the week ahead, this is the result of a direct intrusion of the Polar Vortex, bringing Arctic air (for early November) into much of the eastern U.S. with record temperatures possible in the south this week.
Monday
Tomorrow is probably our most unsettled day of the week as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop and move across the region to our west. This storm while bringing us rain showers will be dragging enough cold to bring the first lake effect snows to the snow belt in western New York and even out toward Chicago, where 6-12" of snow is possible!
This storm system will move through fairly quickly, and it is on the front end of the coming trough that will drop our temperatures. Tomorrow doesn't look like an all day rainer or washout, but there will be chances of showers throughout the day with a chance of heavier rain in the afternoon, much like today. By tomorrow evening we should be starting to dry out.
Below is an 18z high resolution NAM depiction of the rainfall chances tomorrow.
Monday
Tomorrow is probably our most unsettled day of the week as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop and move across the region to our west. This storm while bringing us rain showers will be dragging enough cold to bring the first lake effect snows to the snow belt in western New York and even out toward Chicago, where 6-12" of snow is possible!
This storm system will move through fairly quickly, and it is on the front end of the coming trough that will drop our temperatures. Tomorrow doesn't look like an all day rainer or washout, but there will be chances of showers throughout the day with a chance of heavier rain in the afternoon, much like today. By tomorrow evening we should be starting to dry out.
Below is an 18z high resolution NAM depiction of the rainfall chances tomorrow.
Tuesday-Thursday
The coldest air of the season likely arrives Tuesday, and that's when we will see our first real winter like temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will struggle out of the 30s for much of inland CT, though I think most will end up in the upper 30s to low 40s. It's possible temperatures may be even a touch colder as the models have been pretty aggressive with this cold shot, but I think we moderate a little bit. Most of us have had freezes by now so the growing season is over, but Tuesday morning has the best shot yet of a freeze even to the coast.
As the low departs Tuesday and a strong northwest flow keeps us cold, an upper level low and its flow will potentially allow snow flurries and snow showers to move further east than usual, and that will give CT its first shot at first flakes. In the NW hills, you have the best shot of flakes, and that may even lead to a coating, but for the rest of the state flurries/snow showers will be hit or miss with the best chances in northern CT. No accumulation is expected outside of the hills.
Wednesday is another cold day but temperatures moderate some. I think there will be another chance of snow showers, but I also believe the odds are lower on Wednesday. We remain quiet and colder than normal on Thursday as well.
The coldest air of the season likely arrives Tuesday, and that's when we will see our first real winter like temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will struggle out of the 30s for much of inland CT, though I think most will end up in the upper 30s to low 40s. It's possible temperatures may be even a touch colder as the models have been pretty aggressive with this cold shot, but I think we moderate a little bit. Most of us have had freezes by now so the growing season is over, but Tuesday morning has the best shot yet of a freeze even to the coast.
As the low departs Tuesday and a strong northwest flow keeps us cold, an upper level low and its flow will potentially allow snow flurries and snow showers to move further east than usual, and that will give CT its first shot at first flakes. In the NW hills, you have the best shot of flakes, and that may even lead to a coating, but for the rest of the state flurries/snow showers will be hit or miss with the best chances in northern CT. No accumulation is expected outside of the hills.
Wednesday is another cold day but temperatures moderate some. I think there will be another chance of snow showers, but I also believe the odds are lower on Wednesday. We remain quiet and colder than normal on Thursday as well.
Above: the 18z high resolution NAM again depicting the lake effect streamers that may bring some snow flurries or snow showers into the state Tuesday. Wednesday also has a chance of producing first flakes.
Friday-Sunday
The weekend is currently looking quiet and colder than normal, with potentially another blast of cold from Canada. The GFS does want to send a weak clipper through the region Saturday which would bring another chance of snow, but I'm discounting that for now given the lack of a signal from other guidance. The 18z Euro maybe tries something similar for Friday, but I think the signal is too disjointed to read much into it right now. For now, I will just introduce low odds for something Friday and Saturday, but not that it's likely one day or the other that would see precipitation.
Although it is out of the forecast range, this may set the stage for another storm system early in the following week, which is forever away but may be interesting if the signal remains (which...at this range is not all that likely haha).
Friday-Sunday
The weekend is currently looking quiet and colder than normal, with potentially another blast of cold from Canada. The GFS does want to send a weak clipper through the region Saturday which would bring another chance of snow, but I'm discounting that for now given the lack of a signal from other guidance. The 18z Euro maybe tries something similar for Friday, but I think the signal is too disjointed to read much into it right now. For now, I will just introduce low odds for something Friday and Saturday, but not that it's likely one day or the other that would see precipitation.
Although it is out of the forecast range, this may set the stage for another storm system early in the following week, which is forever away but may be interesting if the signal remains (which...at this range is not all that likely haha).
Above: the 18z Euro model depicting a reinforcing shot of cold in the coming weekend, especially on Saturday.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and breezy with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and breezy with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 30%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold with a chance of snow flurries and snow showers. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
