Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

First legitimate severe weather threat of the season for Monday...heat builds by next weekend...

5/15/2022

Comments

 
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

There is a lot going on! The two big weather stories of the week bookend the forecast period. Tomorrow we see our first real severe weather threat of the season for parts of CT, with the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) issuing a slight risk for severe weather with an enhanced risk just to our west. The other story will be this weekend, as we see a signal for our first widespread 90 degree day. Let's dive in. 
Picture
Above, the SPC outlook (that will be updated overnight) that puts central and western CT in a slight risk zone. 

Monday
As is usually the case with our early season severe threats, there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the extent of the potential. We'll see significant shear and decent moisture and instability, but we aren't quite sure on the timing, and whether the front will be able to take advantage of higher instability earlier in the afternoon. 

Currently, I think we will see a warm, muggy, and mostly nice day in advance of a line of storms by mid-afternoon. Some of the storms will be severe, especially in upstate NY and western CT. The biggest hazard will be strong winds and hail. We will be watching through the day. 
Picture
Above is a simulation of tomorrow from noon to midnight from the high resolution NAM. Note how it has a strong line develop in NY and gradually weaken as it advances into central and eastern CT. We'll see what the timing and ingredients look like tomorrow. In the wake of the front, we see a nice springtime period of weather. 

Tuesday-Thursday
For those that were appalled at the summer-like warmth this weekend, the middle of the week is for you. We will see beautiful and dry conditions during this period, with highs in the 70s and lower humidity, along with cooler nights. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend warms up, and potentially in a big way. Friday we will see an increase in warmth, with inland temperatures crossing 80 again in the warmer spots with slightly increased humidity. Saturday looks like the peak heat day, with our first chance of widespread 90s inland. Sunday has a split in the guidance as we see a cold front advance, but for now, I am going with slower timing of the front meaning we see continued warmth on Sunday and increasing clouds in advance of the front. Overall, nothing Earth shattering, but likely our warmest temperatures so far. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Cooler at the shoreline. Chance of rain 70%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Few degrees cooler at the shore. 

Saturday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the immediate shoreline. 

Sunday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 70s at the shore. Chance of storms 30%. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB
Follow @SouthernCTWX
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service