Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
There is a lot going on! The two big weather stories of the week bookend the forecast period. Tomorrow we see our first real severe weather threat of the season for parts of CT, with the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) issuing a slight risk for severe weather with an enhanced risk just to our west. The other story will be this weekend, as we see a signal for our first widespread 90 degree day. Let's dive in.
There is a lot going on! The two big weather stories of the week bookend the forecast period. Tomorrow we see our first real severe weather threat of the season for parts of CT, with the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) issuing a slight risk for severe weather with an enhanced risk just to our west. The other story will be this weekend, as we see a signal for our first widespread 90 degree day. Let's dive in.
Above, the SPC outlook (that will be updated overnight) that puts central and western CT in a slight risk zone.
Monday
As is usually the case with our early season severe threats, there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the extent of the potential. We'll see significant shear and decent moisture and instability, but we aren't quite sure on the timing, and whether the front will be able to take advantage of higher instability earlier in the afternoon.
Currently, I think we will see a warm, muggy, and mostly nice day in advance of a line of storms by mid-afternoon. Some of the storms will be severe, especially in upstate NY and western CT. The biggest hazard will be strong winds and hail. We will be watching through the day.
Monday
As is usually the case with our early season severe threats, there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the extent of the potential. We'll see significant shear and decent moisture and instability, but we aren't quite sure on the timing, and whether the front will be able to take advantage of higher instability earlier in the afternoon.
Currently, I think we will see a warm, muggy, and mostly nice day in advance of a line of storms by mid-afternoon. Some of the storms will be severe, especially in upstate NY and western CT. The biggest hazard will be strong winds and hail. We will be watching through the day.
Above is a simulation of tomorrow from noon to midnight from the high resolution NAM. Note how it has a strong line develop in NY and gradually weaken as it advances into central and eastern CT. We'll see what the timing and ingredients look like tomorrow. In the wake of the front, we see a nice springtime period of weather.
Tuesday-Thursday
For those that were appalled at the summer-like warmth this weekend, the middle of the week is for you. We will see beautiful and dry conditions during this period, with highs in the 70s and lower humidity, along with cooler nights.
Friday-Sunday
The weekend warms up, and potentially in a big way. Friday we will see an increase in warmth, with inland temperatures crossing 80 again in the warmer spots with slightly increased humidity. Saturday looks like the peak heat day, with our first chance of widespread 90s inland. Sunday has a split in the guidance as we see a cold front advance, but for now, I am going with slower timing of the front meaning we see continued warmth on Sunday and increasing clouds in advance of the front. Overall, nothing Earth shattering, but likely our warmest temperatures so far.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Cooler at the shoreline. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Few degrees cooler at the shore.
Saturday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the immediate shoreline.
Sunday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 70s at the shore. Chance of storms 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Tuesday-Thursday
For those that were appalled at the summer-like warmth this weekend, the middle of the week is for you. We will see beautiful and dry conditions during this period, with highs in the 70s and lower humidity, along with cooler nights.
Friday-Sunday
The weekend warms up, and potentially in a big way. Friday we will see an increase in warmth, with inland temperatures crossing 80 again in the warmer spots with slightly increased humidity. Saturday looks like the peak heat day, with our first chance of widespread 90s inland. Sunday has a split in the guidance as we see a cold front advance, but for now, I am going with slower timing of the front meaning we see continued warmth on Sunday and increasing clouds in advance of the front. Overall, nothing Earth shattering, but likely our warmest temperatures so far.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Cooler at the shoreline. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Few degrees cooler at the shore.
Saturday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the immediate shoreline.
Sunday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 70s at the shore. Chance of storms 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
