As it is, we are running late in our annual transition of seasons. However, a true taste of Autumn has finally arrived, with colder locations falling well below freezing this morning. Although this week will be mostly mild, the transition of the pattern is finally underway, and by 6 to 10 days from now, a true fall pattern will become established across our area.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from Texas to right about NYC. Since the majority of this high pressure is south of the area, this cool spell will not last long.
Tonight: There should be a wide range in temperatures tonight, with radiational cooling in the favored spots. Low temperatures should range from the low 30s to the low 40s.
Tomorrow: Sunshine should allow temperatures to reach 70 or a little above. Really not much else to say.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Nothing but sun and a degree or two warmer than Wednesday . Maybe 70 to 75 statewide. Again, not really a whole lot to say.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: A generally calm weekend is in store, with pleasant temperatures. Other than get out and enjoy it, there really isn't much I can say. Highs should be around 70 Friday and Saturday, and then 70 to 75 Sunday, as a warmer SW flow establishes itself well ahead of an approaching cold front.
Clouds increase on Monday ahead of this system. I'll keep Monday dry, as it looks like precipitation holds off until Tuesday. But with the increased clouds, temperatures are probably a couple degrees lower on Monday: near 70, except upper 60s in the NW hills and along the S coast, where onshore flow will result in cooler temperatures.
On Tuesday, a strong cold front approaches (this is one of another in a series of cold fronts that accelerates our pattern change). This front will likely bring periods of showers and perhaps even imbedded thunderstorms to the area. Precipitation could be locally heavy, as precipitable waters rise and overall motion is slow. With rain falling much of the time, expect fairly uniform highs in the mid to upper 60s. It could even get a bit muggy ahead of the front!
Beyond that, we look to get into an extended period of at or below normal temperatures. That is not to say that every single day will be below normal. If a strong cold front slowly approaches, it could even go much above normal for a day ahead of the front. However, the majority of days should turn out to be at or below normal, as the new pattern we'll be entering favors cold in the east.
Now, let's take a look at the upcoming weather events to affect our region, in map format. All the action, so to speak, is in the long range, so this is where we'll focus. The first map shows the frontal rains on Tuesday.
Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from Texas to right about NYC. Since the majority of this high pressure is south of the area, this cool spell will not last long.
Tonight: There should be a wide range in temperatures tonight, with radiational cooling in the favored spots. Low temperatures should range from the low 30s to the low 40s.
Tomorrow: Sunshine should allow temperatures to reach 70 or a little above. Really not much else to say.
Tomorrow Night/Thu: Nothing but sun and a degree or two warmer than Wednesday . Maybe 70 to 75 statewide. Again, not really a whole lot to say.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: A generally calm weekend is in store, with pleasant temperatures. Other than get out and enjoy it, there really isn't much I can say. Highs should be around 70 Friday and Saturday, and then 70 to 75 Sunday, as a warmer SW flow establishes itself well ahead of an approaching cold front.
Clouds increase on Monday ahead of this system. I'll keep Monday dry, as it looks like precipitation holds off until Tuesday. But with the increased clouds, temperatures are probably a couple degrees lower on Monday: near 70, except upper 60s in the NW hills and along the S coast, where onshore flow will result in cooler temperatures.
On Tuesday, a strong cold front approaches (this is one of another in a series of cold fronts that accelerates our pattern change). This front will likely bring periods of showers and perhaps even imbedded thunderstorms to the area. Precipitation could be locally heavy, as precipitable waters rise and overall motion is slow. With rain falling much of the time, expect fairly uniform highs in the mid to upper 60s. It could even get a bit muggy ahead of the front!
Beyond that, we look to get into an extended period of at or below normal temperatures. That is not to say that every single day will be below normal. If a strong cold front slowly approaches, it could even go much above normal for a day ahead of the front. However, the majority of days should turn out to be at or below normal, as the new pattern we'll be entering favors cold in the east.
Now, let's take a look at the upcoming weather events to affect our region, in map format. All the action, so to speak, is in the long range, so this is where we'll focus. The first map shows the frontal rains on Tuesday.
You can see there are two main areas of rain at this time frame. One has already moved through. The other is over the Great Lakes, near the surface low. This may swing through later in the sequence. This slug of rain will determine who gets heavy rain vs. who just gets showers.
Next, let's look at the Climate Prediction Center's analysis of the upper air pattern 11 days from now. You can see on this map that there is blocking over the Atlantic, a ridge over the west, and this forces the cold air over the Eastern United States.
Next, let's look at the Climate Prediction Center's analysis of the upper air pattern 11 days from now. You can see on this map that there is blocking over the Atlantic, a ridge over the west, and this forces the cold air over the Eastern United States.
Anyway, that's all for now... have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
