Good morning and Happy New Year from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a wet New Year's Eve, the first day of 2023 brings a mix of sun and clouds alongside warmer than normal temperatures. The pattern that delivered high end cold but little snow in late December is reshuffling, and that has brought us a "torch" period with rainy and much warmer than normal conditions.
However, this reshuffle is already ongoing, and while the first half of the week will continue to torch, we will see a move toward colder and more seasonable conditions by the end of the week. For the first time in 2023, let's dive in.
After a wet New Year's Eve, the first day of 2023 brings a mix of sun and clouds alongside warmer than normal temperatures. The pattern that delivered high end cold but little snow in late December is reshuffling, and that has brought us a "torch" period with rainy and much warmer than normal conditions.
However, this reshuffle is already ongoing, and while the first half of the week will continue to torch, we will see a move toward colder and more seasonable conditions by the end of the week. For the first time in 2023, let's dive in.
Above: the GFS ensembles at 00z last night showing the broader upper level pattern. Note the little trough in the Mid-Atlantic. That may be a feature to watch for the end of the week.
January Climatology
Hartford (BDL)
January 1 Average High: 37
January 1 Average Low: 21
January 31 Average Highs: 36
January 31 Average Low: 18
Average Monthly Snowfall: 14.2"
Bridgeport
January 1 Average High: 40
January 1 Average Low: 26
January 31 Average Highs: 38
January 31 Average Low: 24
Average Monthly Snowfall: 8.5"
For winter lovers, while December holds a lot of appeal because of the holidays it's January-March that are our prime periods for snowfall and big snow events. Bottom line, while an above average snow season is less likely after a dud of a December, we're far away from canceling winter.
Monday
Monday is the observed New Year holiday for many, and it is likely to be the only quiet day of the work week. Expect a day much like today, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 50s.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday is likely to start off quiet and dry, but an approaching warm front will bring rain showers to the state by the afternoon and evening. It's an umbrella day, and like New Year's Eve we can expect rain showers, foggy conditions, and highs in the 50s. Wednesday also looks wet, and with the warm front passed we are going to see even warmer temperatures! Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s before we start to see colder temperatures advect into the region.
January Climatology
Hartford (BDL)
January 1 Average High: 37
January 1 Average Low: 21
January 31 Average Highs: 36
January 31 Average Low: 18
Average Monthly Snowfall: 14.2"
Bridgeport
January 1 Average High: 40
January 1 Average Low: 26
January 31 Average Highs: 38
January 31 Average Low: 24
Average Monthly Snowfall: 8.5"
For winter lovers, while December holds a lot of appeal because of the holidays it's January-March that are our prime periods for snowfall and big snow events. Bottom line, while an above average snow season is less likely after a dud of a December, we're far away from canceling winter.
Monday
Monday is the observed New Year holiday for many, and it is likely to be the only quiet day of the work week. Expect a day much like today, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 50s.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday is likely to start off quiet and dry, but an approaching warm front will bring rain showers to the state by the afternoon and evening. It's an umbrella day, and like New Year's Eve we can expect rain showers, foggy conditions, and highs in the 50s. Wednesday also looks wet, and with the warm front passed we are going to see even warmer temperatures! Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s before we start to see colder temperatures advect into the region.
Above: the latest GFS depiction of the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. It's a pretty straightforward rain event that's coming, and while it'll be mostly rain showers, we could see heavier rain at times as we deal with an unseasonably moist atmosphere.
Thursday-Friday
Thursday may be the other break we get in the week as a cold front pushes through bringing more seasonable temperatures. While it may be above normal, as GP stated now that we're in January it's becoming easier for well-timed systems to bring wintry weather even in a slightly above normal temperature regime. This is critical for Friday.
Friday is complicated. While we're still a long way from high confidence, all of the guidance has a signal for some type of weak development of a coastal low after the boundary sinks south on Thursday. With cold air trying to come in, this could mean that Friday brings our first wintry threat since mid December.
If such a thing were to play out, the marginal airmass would likely mean that this would favor interior CT, but it's just something to watch for now. For me, I want to see how real such a coastal actually is. If we get a stronger low, that could mean a more impactful event. Something that develops later or weaker would bring virtually nothing. The model run below is more on the robust side while the Euro has generally shown light snow showers.
For now, I am just introducing modest odds for rain and/or snow for Friday. Stay tuned on this one as it could easily trend either way.
Thursday may be the other break we get in the week as a cold front pushes through bringing more seasonable temperatures. While it may be above normal, as GP stated now that we're in January it's becoming easier for well-timed systems to bring wintry weather even in a slightly above normal temperature regime. This is critical for Friday.
Friday is complicated. While we're still a long way from high confidence, all of the guidance has a signal for some type of weak development of a coastal low after the boundary sinks south on Thursday. With cold air trying to come in, this could mean that Friday brings our first wintry threat since mid December.
If such a thing were to play out, the marginal airmass would likely mean that this would favor interior CT, but it's just something to watch for now. For me, I want to see how real such a coastal actually is. If we get a stronger low, that could mean a more impactful event. Something that develops later or weaker would bring virtually nothing. The model run below is more on the robust side while the Euro has generally shown light snow showers.
For now, I am just introducing modest odds for rain and/or snow for Friday. Stay tuned on this one as it could easily trend either way.
Above: the 12z GFS hot off the presses. The GFS has been waffling on Friday, but this run shows what I described above--modest development off the coast that could bring a period of snow on Friday. Some of the other guidance has a weak signal as well.
Saturday-Sunday
In the wake of whatever happens Friday, we are likely to see a seasonably cold and quiet weekend. We'll have to watch the following week as the pattern reshuffle completes and we likely enter another active period.
Saturday-Sunday
In the wake of whatever happens Friday, we are likely to see a seasonably cold and quiet weekend. We'll have to watch the following week as the pattern reshuffle completes and we likely enter another active period.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Highs in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers by afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Partly sunny and colder. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Highs in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers by afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Partly sunny and colder. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
