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Forecast Discussion for March 8th 2015

3/9/2015

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a morning that started off cold, showery, and even snowy in some sections, the clouds finally cleared and a nice afternoon was had by most. With the sun out and temps breaking into the 40s over most of the state, it felt like a spring day, considering the endless onslaught of Arctic air which has basically impacted the state unabated since late January. Currently across the state we have temperatures in the mid to upper 20s inland to low 30s at the shore, these temperatures will only fall off slightly as we head through the evening, back to the lower 20s inland and mid to upper 20s at the shore. Also some clouds will move in and increase toward morning, in association with a disturbance that will mainly miss the state to the south, but there is a slight chance of mixed precipitation, especially in the southern portion of the state, through about mid morning Monday.
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Monday afternoon looks to be pleasant, with the sun coming back out and temps again rising through the 40s. This will promote more melting, and ever so slightly those snowbanks and the snowpack you have in your yards will start to disappear, which in some place it is frozen solid and will take much more than a few days of 40-50 degree weather to decimate. For Monday night, skies look to be clear with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s across the state. Not exactly unbearable cold, we have dealt with much worse over the last few weeks in daytime highs alone.

Skies remain clear through early Tuesday morning, and yet again, clouds will be on the increase as another disturbance will scrape the state to the south. It does not look as though there will be any appreciable amounts of precipitation and anything that does fall looks to be more wet than white.  Even during the night, anything that does fall will be mainly rain and not frozen, outside of maybe some spots north of I84 later Tuesday night. There could be some lingering showers into early Wednesday morning, but all looks to be cleared out by the Wednesday AM rush setting the stage for beautiful day. Skies will clear out, and when all is said and done, temperatures will have risen to 50 degrees or above with sunny skies. 50 degrees at this point will feel like we are on a tropical island somewhere, but not so fast, starting Wednesday night, cooler temps move in, with temps dropping back through the 20s.
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Enjoy the nice, warmer first half of the week, as the latter half of the week looks to be cooler and unsettled. Coming off a day on Wednesday where temps top out in the 50s across the state, Thursday will be about 10 degrees cooler after a cold front swings through. Conditions for Thursday afternoon look to be mostly sunny with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s across the state. Skies will remain mostly clear with temperatures dropping back through the 20s on Thursday night. Even the first half of Friday looks to be mostly tranquil, with temperatures in the mid 30s statewide. Past this time period, we are watching for our next major weather maker to impact the state with wintry precipitation. As of right now, it looks like everyone down to the shoreline does get into some front end frozen precipitation, with inland and elevated areas holding onto snow and ice a bit longer. A few models such as the GFS and Euro agree with both track and intensity, but the Euro is showing colder air holding on longer so higher snowfall accumulations. At this point it is still too early to speculate on snowfall accumulations, but we should have a better handle on it by sometime early mid week.

After the storm exits the area later Saturday, it looks as though temperatures will rebound back into the 40s for one day on Sunday, but those temperatures look to be short-lived as temperatures for next Monday look to dip back into the 30s again. Looking even further into the week of the 15th, it looks as if we will have a quick warm up in the middle of the week, but right back into the freezer for the end of that week.  So winter look like it still wants to hold on, through at least the end of March.
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Have a good rest of your evening everyone! As always thank you for reading, and stay tuned!- Tim
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