Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Another storm is on the way. An unusually strong low pressure system is developing in the Gulf and will develop explosively as it treks north over the next 48 hours. With the current overall upper level pattern, this is going to be one that cuts near or just to our west, bringing more wind and coastal flooding than last weekend, in addition to another high rainfall event. Let's dive in.
Another storm is on the way. An unusually strong low pressure system is developing in the Gulf and will develop explosively as it treks north over the next 48 hours. With the current overall upper level pattern, this is going to be one that cuts near or just to our west, bringing more wind and coastal flooding than last weekend, in addition to another high rainfall event. Let's dive in.
Above: a listing of the current hazards for the region. Unlike last storm, we have more widespread wind headlines and coastal flood warnings for the shoreline, in addition to flood watches for the entire state (not pictured).
The Overall Setup
As mentioned at the start, a powerful low is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. As it travels north, northern stream energy will get injected into the system, causing rapid deepening of the low. Why aren't we seeing snow with this? There is no high pressure to "block" the storm from cutting to our west and flooding us with warm air. With a further west track likely with this storm, we increase the coastal flooding and wind potential, particularly in southern Connecticut.
The Overall Setup
As mentioned at the start, a powerful low is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. As it travels north, northern stream energy will get injected into the system, causing rapid deepening of the low. Why aren't we seeing snow with this? There is no high pressure to "block" the storm from cutting to our west and flooding us with warm air. With a further west track likely with this storm, we increase the coastal flooding and wind potential, particularly in southern Connecticut.
Above: Euro depiction of the storm progression from the Gulf all the way to Canada. With no block, the low center cuts to our west, bringing multiple hazards and an overall stronger storm than last weekend from Sunday through Monday.
Timing & Impacts
Timing
We expect rain showers to move in as early as tomorrow morning, but kind of like last Sunday we are likely to stay mostly dry through the morning hours. We probably start off as light showers and drizzle after noon that makes the afternoon and evening unpleasant followed by increasing intensity in rain and wind as the storm approaches overnight. Overall, tomorrow morning through noon is a yellow flag for activities (watch the radar) with outdoor activities becoming more messy after gradually.
The worst of the rain and wind will happen overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Coastal flooding should peak with the Sunday night and Monday high tides, so shoreline folks should watch out for that.
Rain Impacts
We have flood watches for the state up again, and with the significant rain last Sunday-Monday the flood risk is a little higher. Expect a general rainfall of 2-4" again, with localized flooding alongside river/stream flooding.
Coastal Flooding
Unlike last storm this one should cut to the west. This brings an onshore flow that will allow for minor to moderate coastal flooding. If you are near the coastline in a vulnerable area, this is something to watch closely tomorrow night through Monday.
Wind Impacts
Unlike last storm as well, with this one cutting to the west we have a higher chance of strong winds. More mixing of the atmosphere is expected, meaning that we should see higher gusts generally than last week. With high wind watches for New London County and coastal CT, the wind risk just inland of the immediate shoreline (more mixing) means peak wind gusts could be in the damaging range.
For inland CT, peak wind gusts should top out between 40-50mph. Generally, that's not too bad given the lack of leaves on trees, but isolated to scattered power outages late Sunday into Monday is possible.
For coastal CT and New London County, peak wind gusts are likely to top out between 50-60mph. This is the high wind watch area. Highest wind gusts would be in eastern and SE CT especially. Here more scattered power outages is possible, especially if we see gusts over 55mph.
This is not something to panic over, but just be prepared if you're a place that loses power in seasonal wind events.
Again, peak winds are late Sunday into Monday, most likely 11pm Sunday through 11am Monday followed by a gradual decrease in winds.
Timing
We expect rain showers to move in as early as tomorrow morning, but kind of like last Sunday we are likely to stay mostly dry through the morning hours. We probably start off as light showers and drizzle after noon that makes the afternoon and evening unpleasant followed by increasing intensity in rain and wind as the storm approaches overnight. Overall, tomorrow morning through noon is a yellow flag for activities (watch the radar) with outdoor activities becoming more messy after gradually.
The worst of the rain and wind will happen overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Coastal flooding should peak with the Sunday night and Monday high tides, so shoreline folks should watch out for that.
Rain Impacts
We have flood watches for the state up again, and with the significant rain last Sunday-Monday the flood risk is a little higher. Expect a general rainfall of 2-4" again, with localized flooding alongside river/stream flooding.
Coastal Flooding
Unlike last storm this one should cut to the west. This brings an onshore flow that will allow for minor to moderate coastal flooding. If you are near the coastline in a vulnerable area, this is something to watch closely tomorrow night through Monday.
Wind Impacts
Unlike last storm as well, with this one cutting to the west we have a higher chance of strong winds. More mixing of the atmosphere is expected, meaning that we should see higher gusts generally than last week. With high wind watches for New London County and coastal CT, the wind risk just inland of the immediate shoreline (more mixing) means peak wind gusts could be in the damaging range.
For inland CT, peak wind gusts should top out between 40-50mph. Generally, that's not too bad given the lack of leaves on trees, but isolated to scattered power outages late Sunday into Monday is possible.
For coastal CT and New London County, peak wind gusts are likely to top out between 50-60mph. This is the high wind watch area. Highest wind gusts would be in eastern and SE CT especially. Here more scattered power outages is possible, especially if we see gusts over 55mph.
This is not something to panic over, but just be prepared if you're a place that loses power in seasonal wind events.
Again, peak winds are late Sunday into Monday, most likely 11pm Sunday through 11am Monday followed by a gradual decrease in winds.
Above: the 3km NAM (high resolution) depicting wind speeds late Sunday through Monday. This is not to be taken verbatim because sometimes we see overmixing with the high res models, but this would probably be a worst case scenario, with high winds well into CT. Some other high resolution guidance is aggressive as well.
This is something we'll watch, but for now max gusts of 40-50 inland and 50-60 at the coast/New London County works.
The storm departs Monday afternoon, and then we go into a quiet period. Potentially through Christmas. We'll talk about Christmas after this storm but even though a white Christmas looks unlikely temperatures look seasonable.
This is something we'll watch, but for now max gusts of 40-50 inland and 50-60 at the coast/New London County works.
The storm departs Monday afternoon, and then we go into a quiet period. Potentially through Christmas. We'll talk about Christmas after this storm but even though a white Christmas looks unlikely temperatures look seasonable.
The Dailies
Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with increasing rainfall. Breezy. Rain may be heavy at times late. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Monday: Rain and wind. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs dropping from the upper 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with rain and snow showers possible. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with snow showers possible. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with increasing rainfall. Breezy. Rain may be heavy at times late. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Monday: Rain and wind. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs dropping from the upper 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with rain and snow showers possible. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with snow showers possible. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
