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Forecaster Discussion--10/14/24

10/14/2024

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

It has been uncharacteristically quiet the last few months, and after a couple days of unsettled weather, we're going right back to quiet and dry conditions. We could use more rain, as most of the state is now officially abnormally dry. We continue to step down in our fall transition toward winter, as the higher elevations of New England saw snow today and frost is likely for most of the state the next few nights.  
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Above: the latest Drought Monitor analysis for CT. After being wetter than normal through the summer, now the majority of the state is abnormally dry. 

Tuesday-Thursday
It's a pretty easy forecast for the week. As our storm system passes, we end up with a deep trough over the region that will bring us our coldest temperatures of the season so far. Expect some breezy conditions but overall sunny and dry days with highs in the 50s. Each night will bring the chance of widespread lows in the 30s and frost in spots. Colder areas in NW CT should watch out for a freeze at least one of these nights. 
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Above: the 18z GFS depiction of surface temperature anomalies Tuesday-Thursday. With a trough over us, we have a cold shot by October standards in place. 

Friday-Sunday

By the weekend, we're breaking out of this colder than normal snap as a ridge of high pressure builds in once again, and as a result we will rebound to near normal on Friday with highs in the mid 60s, and then warmer than normal Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Conditions look great. Not much else to say! 
Picture
Above: 18z GFS 500mb depiction showing the ridge building over much of the east Friday through the weekend. This will allow for more seasonable to warmer than normal temperatures. 

The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Morning lows in the mid 30s (inland) to low 40s (coast). 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and chilly. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Morning lows in the low 30s (inland) to upper 30 (coast)

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Morning lows in the low 30s (inland) to upper 30s (coast). 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Morning lows in the mid 30s (inland) to low 40s (coast). 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

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Thank you for reading SCW.
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​-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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