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Forecaster Discussion--11/8/20

11/8/2020

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

In the last ten days, we've gone from record (October) snow to record warmth. Our warmer than normal pattern is going to continue through much of the week, with our run in the 70s continuing in the early part of the week. Things look unsettled as well as a cool down approaches by the end of the week. Let's dive in. 

Monday-Tuesday
The first two days of the work week look fantastic, with sunny skies and warm temperatures that reach the 70s inland as high pressure dominates. Shoreline areas will be a touch cooler. Monday looks to be the warmest.

Wednesday-Thursday
This period will be dominated by a slow moving cold front that will gradually end the warmer than normal temperatures we've seen. Currently, much of Wednesday looks fine, but showers and heavier rain will likely develop late in the day and into the overnight hours. This should continue with mostly cloudy skies and some rain showers on Thursday. We will need to watch to see if there is an area of low pressure that forms along the front, which would bring greater chances of more meaningful rain. For now, things look mostly cloudy with off and on rain late Wednesday through much of Thursday. Timing could shift as we get closer to the forecast period. 
Picture
Above: GFS depiction of Wednesday and Thursday. Note the moisture focused along the front. That's a solid signal for meaningful rain but if we have some development along the front we could see some periods of heavy rain. ​

Friday-Sunday
In the wake of the cold front, things will get...well...colder. Our temperatures should fall back to seasonal normals, which mean temperatures in the 50s. I'm skeptical that this period is dry, as the pattern seems to suggest that we could see more moisture from additional areas of low pressure. For now, I am introducing chance of rain each day, but once again we're likely waiting until later in the week for the picture to clear. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with rain showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%

Saturday: Partly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%

Sunday: Partly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 30%

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Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 
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