Good evening from SCW.
As mentioned in prior forecasts, the long awaited pattern change has finally taken place. The weekend saw our first winter weather event in quite some time, and the start of this week has been quite cold. Many remained below freezing today, and that will likely continue for inland areas through tomorrow.
The sustainability of this more wintry pattern however, is in flux. Previously, we thought that we'd see a bit of a relaxation after this initial burst, followed by a reload of the pattern. That is looking more tenuous as we end the month.
We've had plenty of winters that were backloaded, so while it's not ideal, I am not too concerned at this time that this winter will end up being a total dud. There are still signals that February isn't a total disaster for winter lovers.
Turning toward this week--the theme during the workweek is quiet. The main thing to discuss is the weekend, which may feature a significant storm.
As mentioned in prior forecasts, the long awaited pattern change has finally taken place. The weekend saw our first winter weather event in quite some time, and the start of this week has been quite cold. Many remained below freezing today, and that will likely continue for inland areas through tomorrow.
The sustainability of this more wintry pattern however, is in flux. Previously, we thought that we'd see a bit of a relaxation after this initial burst, followed by a reload of the pattern. That is looking more tenuous as we end the month.
We've had plenty of winters that were backloaded, so while it's not ideal, I am not too concerned at this time that this winter will end up being a total dud. There are still signals that February isn't a total disaster for winter lovers.
Turning toward this week--the theme during the workweek is quiet. The main thing to discuss is the weekend, which may feature a significant storm.
Above is the month to date departure in temperature. In past years, we've saved our blowtorches for December. Not this winter. The outrageous image above is courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The cold will remain for the next two days. Tomorrow looks very cold with most below freezing all day. Conditions will be nice as high pressure remains in place. Wednesday will be when we begin to see more moderation in the temperature, with many reaching the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday-Friday
As upper level ridging traverses the region, we will see continued moderation in temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Conditions should remain quiet, and with highs in the low to mid 40s, it might feel pretty good outside! All eyes will then turn toward the weekend.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The cold will remain for the next two days. Tomorrow looks very cold with most below freezing all day. Conditions will be nice as high pressure remains in place. Wednesday will be when we begin to see more moderation in the temperature, with many reaching the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday-Friday
As upper level ridging traverses the region, we will see continued moderation in temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Conditions should remain quiet, and with highs in the low to mid 40s, it might feel pretty good outside! All eyes will then turn toward the weekend.
Above: A 12z European Ensemble panel showing the upper level pattern this weekend. Note how there is ridging/higher heights in Canada while an area of low pressure is nearby. That's the kind of setup that could bring an interesting setup.
Saturday-Sunday
There is a great deal of uncertainty with the weekend. As mentioned above, the ensembles of the European model, and the other guidance, has been highlighting this period for a few days. With transient (short-term) blocking we will likely see an upper level low traverse the US. As it gets closer to the East Coast, we may see enough cold hang on for a winter weather event.
The issue is that this is a storm that could easily be rain for most if not all of the state if the low is poorly timed or the track is such that we get warm air flooding the state rather than cold. In fact, I currently favor a mostly rain event for much of the southern portion of the state.
However, there is a long way to go, and indications are that there is higher end potential for a big snowfall, especially in the hilly sections of NW CT. Stay tuned. For those tracking closely, don't even bother looking at the operational runs of the GFS and Euro too much yet--ensemble guidance leads the way in these kind of complex setups.
Saturday-Sunday
There is a great deal of uncertainty with the weekend. As mentioned above, the ensembles of the European model, and the other guidance, has been highlighting this period for a few days. With transient (short-term) blocking we will likely see an upper level low traverse the US. As it gets closer to the East Coast, we may see enough cold hang on for a winter weather event.
The issue is that this is a storm that could easily be rain for most if not all of the state if the low is poorly timed or the track is such that we get warm air flooding the state rather than cold. In fact, I currently favor a mostly rain event for much of the southern portion of the state.
However, there is a long way to go, and indications are that there is higher end potential for a big snowfall, especially in the hilly sections of NW CT. Stay tuned. For those tracking closely, don't even bother looking at the operational runs of the GFS and Euro too much yet--ensemble guidance leads the way in these kind of complex setups.
Above: Euro Ensemble MSLP anomalies. A storm is coming, but track will make a big difference as to whether this is a widespread winter weather event or another rain event.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and/or snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain changing to snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and/or snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain changing to snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
