Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
After a cloudy start, today ended up being pretty nice with seasonable conditions. The next few days look fairly quiet but our stormy pattern looks to continue on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
After a cloudy start, today ended up being pretty nice with seasonable conditions. The next few days look fairly quiet but our stormy pattern looks to continue on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
Above: the latest snow totals for the season so far. Note that for both Hartford (BDL) and Bridgeport we are well above normal.
Tuesday-Wednesday
As I mentioned at the start, the next few days look quiet. Temperatures are looking to be a bit cooler than today. I expect a mostly sunny day on Tuesday, followed by increasing clouds on Wednesday in advance of two waves, the first of which will take aim at the state and give us one final kick as we end 2020.
Tuesday-Wednesday
As I mentioned at the start, the next few days look quiet. Temperatures are looking to be a bit cooler than today. I expect a mostly sunny day on Tuesday, followed by increasing clouds on Wednesday in advance of two waves, the first of which will take aim at the state and give us one final kick as we end 2020.
Above: GFS depiction of Wave 1.
Thursday
There's actually not a whole lot to say about Wave 1, which is expected to impact the state on Thursday. This is associated with a quick moving clipper. We're not expecting temperatures to be cold enough for snow on New Year's Eve, so that is good for those that will be on the roads. We're expecting rain, and while showers will be on and off during the day, especially early, we're expecting a minor event at best.
Friday
New Year's Day however, may be another story. First of all, we're not expecting this storm to be as windy as our Christmas Grinch storm (King Grinch according to this forecaster haha). Second, there's an increasing chance for wintry precipitation on the front end. The image below is of the GFS surface depiction through New Year's Day and early on January 2nd. Note that the timing on the GFS is pretty early, and probably wrong. The preponderance of the other guidance brings the storm in later.
Thursday
There's actually not a whole lot to say about Wave 1, which is expected to impact the state on Thursday. This is associated with a quick moving clipper. We're not expecting temperatures to be cold enough for snow on New Year's Eve, so that is good for those that will be on the roads. We're expecting rain, and while showers will be on and off during the day, especially early, we're expecting a minor event at best.
Friday
New Year's Day however, may be another story. First of all, we're not expecting this storm to be as windy as our Christmas Grinch storm (King Grinch according to this forecaster haha). Second, there's an increasing chance for wintry precipitation on the front end. The image below is of the GFS surface depiction through New Year's Day and early on January 2nd. Note that the timing on the GFS is pretty early, and probably wrong. The preponderance of the other guidance brings the storm in later.
The first and probably easiest thing to notice is that the model wants to bring mixed precipitation into the state the morning of January 1. Under this verbatim depiction however is an in-situ setup that favors cold air damming (CAD). This is when a cold high to the north allows for colder air to funnel down to the surface even as areas aloft warm. This signal is fairly consistent across guidance. What is also consistent is that the mixed precipitation turns to rain as cold air erodes. This is the case whether the GFS timing is wrong or not.
At this time, we're expecting a period of sleet or freezing rain Friday afternoon or evening, followed by cold air eroding and a flip to rain overnight and into Saturday. This does not look like a major or particularly significant event, but it doesn't take a lot of icing to cause problems and we are always perked up with a CAD signal as colder air could hang on longer so we will continue to sharpen this forecast. Happy 2021!
Saturday-Monday
The weekend and start of the first full week of 2021 also looks potentially unsettled. Wave 2 on NYD looks to be a fairly slow mover, so it could take a little time to clear things on Saturday, especially if the storm arrives later than currently expected.
Sunday and Monday there is a signal, albeit weak, for another storm to make a close approach. This one could be a colder system, so it is something we will be watching. At this range however, it could easily be an errant signal from the guidance. Not giving it high odds at this time.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with mixed precipitation in the PM and evening possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with mixed precipitation in the early AM changing to rain. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Monday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
At this time, we're expecting a period of sleet or freezing rain Friday afternoon or evening, followed by cold air eroding and a flip to rain overnight and into Saturday. This does not look like a major or particularly significant event, but it doesn't take a lot of icing to cause problems and we are always perked up with a CAD signal as colder air could hang on longer so we will continue to sharpen this forecast. Happy 2021!
Saturday-Monday
The weekend and start of the first full week of 2021 also looks potentially unsettled. Wave 2 on NYD looks to be a fairly slow mover, so it could take a little time to clear things on Saturday, especially if the storm arrives later than currently expected.
Sunday and Monday there is a signal, albeit weak, for another storm to make a close approach. This one could be a colder system, so it is something we will be watching. At this range however, it could easily be an errant signal from the guidance. Not giving it high odds at this time.
The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with mixed precipitation in the PM and evening possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with mixed precipitation in the early AM changing to rain. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
Monday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 10%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
