Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
I have a confession to make. I'm down on this winter. After a great start for snow lovers in December, we've gone quite a bit into January without a significant snow event, defying our winter forecast. Even worse, it's been hot! Hartford (BDL) is 6 degrees above normal for January! Despite a upper level pattern that most winter lovers dream of, we're stuck in the suck.
This week brings a few potential snow chances, but it doesn't look like another significant event is on the way. Either way, this week is poised to be more wintry, with cold diving in by the end of the work week. Let's dive in.
I have a confession to make. I'm down on this winter. After a great start for snow lovers in December, we've gone quite a bit into January without a significant snow event, defying our winter forecast. Even worse, it's been hot! Hartford (BDL) is 6 degrees above normal for January! Despite a upper level pattern that most winter lovers dream of, we're stuck in the suck.
This week brings a few potential snow chances, but it doesn't look like another significant event is on the way. Either way, this week is poised to be more wintry, with cold diving in by the end of the work week. Let's dive in.
Departure from normal temperature in January so far. Yes, it's been quite warm overall.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like a fine day. We should see seasonably cold (a few degrees warmer than today) conditions and mostly sunny conditions early, followed by increasing clouds as the first storm system we're watching moves in.
Tuesday-Wednesday
A fairly weak storm system will take shape to our south. Originally, it looked like this system would be shunted too far to our south for any real impact here, but recent global guidance from both the Euro and GFS shows a system that is close enough to bring a period of snow to the state. At this time, it looks like there are some lingering questions over how warm temperatures will be in southern CT, and how much precipitation falls, i.e. dynamics. This doesn't look like a significant event, but there may be a stripe of lift that brings more precipitation to some location in southern New England.
Right now, I expect light snow to begin breaking out late Tuesday morning, with potentially moderate snow for a period Tuesday afternoon or evening, especially in northern CT. There may be mixing in southern CT. Both models want to keep light precipitation going into Wednesday, but we'll see about that.
At this time, I think we're looking at a broad Coating-2" with more the further inland you go. I'm not biting on higher snow totals at this time given the lingering questions on "band" placement and temperatures. Stay tuned as this forecast will need to be refined tomorrow.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like a fine day. We should see seasonably cold (a few degrees warmer than today) conditions and mostly sunny conditions early, followed by increasing clouds as the first storm system we're watching moves in.
Tuesday-Wednesday
A fairly weak storm system will take shape to our south. Originally, it looked like this system would be shunted too far to our south for any real impact here, but recent global guidance from both the Euro and GFS shows a system that is close enough to bring a period of snow to the state. At this time, it looks like there are some lingering questions over how warm temperatures will be in southern CT, and how much precipitation falls, i.e. dynamics. This doesn't look like a significant event, but there may be a stripe of lift that brings more precipitation to some location in southern New England.
Right now, I expect light snow to begin breaking out late Tuesday morning, with potentially moderate snow for a period Tuesday afternoon or evening, especially in northern CT. There may be mixing in southern CT. Both models want to keep light precipitation going into Wednesday, but we'll see about that.
At this time, I think we're looking at a broad Coating-2" with more the further inland you go. I'm not biting on higher snow totals at this time given the lingering questions on "band" placement and temperatures. Stay tuned as this forecast will need to be refined tomorrow.
Thursday-Friday
The system should depart on Wednesday, and then, as you can see in the GFS depiction above, we're watching another system. There's not much to say with this one honestly as it looks highly likely that the actual storm will pass well to our south. That said, it's worth noting because there are some indications that we could see an inverted trough set up with this one, which could bring some snow showers on Thursday. In addition, the passage of the storm will draw down the polar vortex for our region on Friday, bringing very cold conditions for Friday and Saturday. If we do end up with snow accumulation that could put us in play for morning temperatures near to possibly below zero on Friday (especially) and Saturday morning for inland areas.
Friday is looking cold and windy with clearing conditions as cold air advects in.
The system should depart on Wednesday, and then, as you can see in the GFS depiction above, we're watching another system. There's not much to say with this one honestly as it looks highly likely that the actual storm will pass well to our south. That said, it's worth noting because there are some indications that we could see an inverted trough set up with this one, which could bring some snow showers on Thursday. In addition, the passage of the storm will draw down the polar vortex for our region on Friday, bringing very cold conditions for Friday and Saturday. If we do end up with snow accumulation that could put us in play for morning temperatures near to possibly below zero on Friday (especially) and Saturday morning for inland areas.
Friday is looking cold and windy with clearing conditions as cold air advects in.
Above image from Tropical Tidbits shows the GFS depiction of the Thursday storm. It is well out to sea, but there's a signal for snow showers over CT Thursday afternoon. The signal is there on the Euro as well. This looks very light, but it's something to watch. The big story will be the cold Friday and Saturday.
Saturday-Sunday
The storm clears and it looks like Saturday is a cold, but nice, day. Highs are likely to be below freezing statewide. By Sunday, we're possibly looking at another wintry system approaching. The signal for this one has been fairly consistent in recent days on the guidance, but it's a long way out. Not worth really thinking about at this time.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with snow, mixing possible in southern CT. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 60%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with snow or mixed precipitation early, followed by mostly cloudy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 10s. Morning lows may be near zero inland.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Morning lows may be near zero inland.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of snow late. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
The storm clears and it looks like Saturday is a cold, but nice, day. Highs are likely to be below freezing statewide. By Sunday, we're possibly looking at another wintry system approaching. The signal for this one has been fairly consistent in recent days on the guidance, but it's a long way out. Not worth really thinking about at this time.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with snow, mixing possible in southern CT. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 60%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with snow or mixed precipitation early, followed by mostly cloudy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 10s. Morning lows may be near zero inland.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Morning lows may be near zero inland.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of snow late. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
