Good afternoon from SCW!
The storm we discussed last week came and went quickly with heavy rain for much of the state yesterday. Today has proven to be a nice day, with temperatures in the 40s across the state and fair conditions. The average high temperature today in Hartford should be 35.
The week ahead looks fairly similar to the last, with high pressure dominating during the work week and all attention focused on another potentially strong storm system during the weekend.
This is the last week of what has been a very warm January. At this point in the season, average high temperatures begin to rise (slowly at first), and we are gaining over two minutes of daylight each day! For winter haters, this is great news. The march toward Spring is slowly beginning.
For those winter lovers out there, however, we've seen how quickly things can change. February is actually our snowiest month historically, and the last few years have brought our biggest snow events in February and March. Current indications continue to signal that we may see another one of these backloaded winters. Hard to do much worse than this January!
Five of the last seven winters had more snow in February than January (Hartford area)
The last three winters brought ten inches or more of snowfall (Hartford area)
The storm we discussed last week came and went quickly with heavy rain for much of the state yesterday. Today has proven to be a nice day, with temperatures in the 40s across the state and fair conditions. The average high temperature today in Hartford should be 35.
The week ahead looks fairly similar to the last, with high pressure dominating during the work week and all attention focused on another potentially strong storm system during the weekend.
This is the last week of what has been a very warm January. At this point in the season, average high temperatures begin to rise (slowly at first), and we are gaining over two minutes of daylight each day! For winter haters, this is great news. The march toward Spring is slowly beginning.
For those winter lovers out there, however, we've seen how quickly things can change. February is actually our snowiest month historically, and the last few years have brought our biggest snow events in February and March. Current indications continue to signal that we may see another one of these backloaded winters. Hard to do much worse than this January!
Five of the last seven winters had more snow in February than January (Hartford area)
The last three winters brought ten inches or more of snowfall (Hartford area)
GOES-16 image from earlier showing fair conditions across Connecticut. More of the same is expected this week.
Monday-Friday
There's no real need to go over each day separately because they should be substantially similar! A ridge of high pressure will dominate the week, bringing quiet conditions and warmer than normal daytime temperatures.
Monday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures similar to today--rising through the 40s for everyone. Tuesday through Friday look a little colder with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, and may be a bit clearer once high pressure is overhead. Thursday could be a sneaky below normal temperature day, but nothing outrageous. By Friday evening, we should begin to see things cloud up a bit in advance of our possible weekend storm.
Monday-Friday
There's no real need to go over each day separately because they should be substantially similar! A ridge of high pressure will dominate the week, bringing quiet conditions and warmer than normal daytime temperatures.
Monday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures similar to today--rising through the 40s for everyone. Tuesday through Friday look a little colder with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, and may be a bit clearer once high pressure is overhead. Thursday could be a sneaky below normal temperature day, but nothing outrageous. By Friday evening, we should begin to see things cloud up a bit in advance of our possible weekend storm.
Above is the 12z GFS, depicting what is on all the guidance--a quiet work week as high pressure scoots over the region. Note the gathering storm at the end of the run. I stopped the animation there because there is significant uncertainty after Friday.
Saturday-Sunday
If there's any activity, it is likely to happen during Super Bowl weekend. Much like last week, there is a strong signal that a significant storm will develop in the south near the end of the week. Just like last week, there is no clear path yet for knowing whether that storm will impact Connecticut and/or whether this is another rain event or a winter weather event.
This is another complicated setup, and it may be Wednesday at the earliest when we have a better idea of what will happen. Currently, the overall upper level pattern favors some type of coastal storm development, but that could easily force things offshore to bring us nothing. I think the main takeaway at this time is that next weekend could be active. I would not cancel or modify any plans at this time.
Stay tuned.
Saturday-Sunday
If there's any activity, it is likely to happen during Super Bowl weekend. Much like last week, there is a strong signal that a significant storm will develop in the south near the end of the week. Just like last week, there is no clear path yet for knowing whether that storm will impact Connecticut and/or whether this is another rain event or a winter weather event.
This is another complicated setup, and it may be Wednesday at the earliest when we have a better idea of what will happen. Currently, the overall upper level pattern favors some type of coastal storm development, but that could easily force things offshore to bring us nothing. I think the main takeaway at this time is that next weekend could be active. I would not cancel or modify any plans at this time.
Stay tuned.
Above is a GEFS depiction of the possibilities for the weekend potential. Note that there are a number of strong low pressures in there, but many of them are well offshore. This is something to watch with a casual eye.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
