Good evening from SCW.
It has been a cold and wintry start to December, with this weekend continuing the theme of colder than normal conditions. In fact, at BDL, we've seen temperatures come in at 4.6 degrees below normal! With the cold has come the snow, even for parts of the shoreline. Both BDL and BDR (Bridgeport) are above normal in snowfall so far.
In recent years, December hasn't passed without a warm up, and that's coming early in the week. It looks short lived, however, with another chance of accumulating snow looking possible for Wednesday. Let's jump in.
It has been a cold and wintry start to December, with this weekend continuing the theme of colder than normal conditions. In fact, at BDL, we've seen temperatures come in at 4.6 degrees below normal! With the cold has come the snow, even for parts of the shoreline. Both BDL and BDR (Bridgeport) are above normal in snowfall so far.
In recent years, December hasn't passed without a warm up, and that's coming early in the week. It looks short lived, however, with another chance of accumulating snow looking possible for Wednesday. Let's jump in.
Snowfall totals so far. With continuing apologies to snow lovers in SW CT, the rest of the state is above normal for snowfall so far this season.
Monday-Tuesday
As I mentioned, the start of the week will also be our period for the warm up. It will be brief and come at a cost. Tomorrow we will see warmer temperatures, but only into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain will move into the region associated with a strong low well to our west. The combination of warmer temperatures, moderate to heavy rain, and higher dew points will cause significant melting of the snow and ice on the ground.
Showers will begin on Monday and the rain will get heavier during the afternoon and evening. The evening commute looks very wet. Tuesday looks relatively warm, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in the warmest spots. Rain will continue into Tuesday, but should be a bit more spotty in intensity and coverage until later into the afternoon and evening hours, when a strong cold front approaches and brings the focal point for potential wintry weather on Wednesday. For NW CT, we may see a transition from rain to snow in some of the highest hill towns as early as late Tuesday evening.
Monday-Tuesday
As I mentioned, the start of the week will also be our period for the warm up. It will be brief and come at a cost. Tomorrow we will see warmer temperatures, but only into the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain will move into the region associated with a strong low well to our west. The combination of warmer temperatures, moderate to heavy rain, and higher dew points will cause significant melting of the snow and ice on the ground.
Showers will begin on Monday and the rain will get heavier during the afternoon and evening. The evening commute looks very wet. Tuesday looks relatively warm, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in the warmest spots. Rain will continue into Tuesday, but should be a bit more spotty in intensity and coverage until later into the afternoon and evening hours, when a strong cold front approaches and brings the focal point for potential wintry weather on Wednesday. For NW CT, we may see a transition from rain to snow in some of the highest hill towns as early as late Tuesday evening.
Latest high resolution NAM depicting the onset of rain showers and heavier rain through Tuesday. As you can see, coverage may be spotty at times, but both Monday and Tuesday are certainly umbrella days.
Wednesday
Here is our latest SCW Period of Interest. As you can see from the NAM depiction above, as the storm departs we will see colder air pushing toward the region. Along the front that will bring the colder air, it is increasingly likely that the state sees a period of snow, as the column cools and a potential weak mid level low develops along the front, maximizing lift to produce snow.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty here. We're still more than 48 hours out, and these setups are notorious for failing to produce as we see less robust moisture, warmer than expected temperatures, or poor timing that minimizes snowfall accumulations. Right now, it is looking like a period of snow will develop statewide during the early morning hours of Wednesday. The snow may continue during the morning commute and into the early afternoon in eastern portions of the state, and as temperatures continue to fall, widespread delays and cancellations are possible, even as we're not expecting major snowfall accumulations.
We are not putting out numbers now, but stay tuned as these details will be sharpened as we get closer.
Wednesday
Here is our latest SCW Period of Interest. As you can see from the NAM depiction above, as the storm departs we will see colder air pushing toward the region. Along the front that will bring the colder air, it is increasingly likely that the state sees a period of snow, as the column cools and a potential weak mid level low develops along the front, maximizing lift to produce snow.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty here. We're still more than 48 hours out, and these setups are notorious for failing to produce as we see less robust moisture, warmer than expected temperatures, or poor timing that minimizes snowfall accumulations. Right now, it is looking like a period of snow will develop statewide during the early morning hours of Wednesday. The snow may continue during the morning commute and into the early afternoon in eastern portions of the state, and as temperatures continue to fall, widespread delays and cancellations are possible, even as we're not expecting major snowfall accumulations.
We are not putting out numbers now, but stay tuned as these details will be sharpened as we get closer.
Above is the GFS depiction of the potential event on Wednesday. It shows the potential for snowfall on the surface, but a deeper look shows a possible red flag. Below is the sounding for the Hartford area (Wednesday morning) shows a layer of dry air (the spike in the green line) that could minimize the impact. Note that the other guidance has less of a flag here.
Thursday-Friday
At any rate, this front means business in terms of cold. We will see temperatures hover near to below freezing on Wednesday, and temperatures should be below freezing statewide on Thursday. Although conditions will improve with moderating temperatures by Friday, the end of the week will feel like winter in terms of temperature.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is not looking good at this time. The guidance has been consistent for quite some time that a major storm will develop and cut to our west. That means rain, especially on Saturday. Conditions look to slowly improve by Sunday, as colder air begins to flow in once again.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain will be heavy at times, especially during the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Snow likely. Daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 60%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 30%
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
At any rate, this front means business in terms of cold. We will see temperatures hover near to below freezing on Wednesday, and temperatures should be below freezing statewide on Thursday. Although conditions will improve with moderating temperatures by Friday, the end of the week will feel like winter in terms of temperature.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is not looking good at this time. The guidance has been consistent for quite some time that a major storm will develop and cut to our west. That means rain, especially on Saturday. Conditions look to slowly improve by Sunday, as colder air begins to flow in once again.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain will be heavy at times, especially during the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Snow likely. Daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 60%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, cold, and breezy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 30%
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
