Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Happy Sunday. January is drawing to a close, and with it, the blowtorch that has settled itself over our part of the world. We have seen temperatures above normal for fourteen consecutive days, which is very impressive considering 1) many of those days have been above normal more than ten degrees and 2) this is typically the coldest time of year!
Well, that’s coming to an end…for now. As I alluded to in my two-week outlook, the end of January and start of February is bringing change. We’re returning to seasonable temperatures for the foreseeable future, and will be watching for a more active pattern heading into early February. I’ll have more on the pattern and outlook for February in a few days with my next two-week outlook. For now, let’s look at the week ahead.
Happy Sunday. January is drawing to a close, and with it, the blowtorch that has settled itself over our part of the world. We have seen temperatures above normal for fourteen consecutive days, which is very impressive considering 1) many of those days have been above normal more than ten degrees and 2) this is typically the coldest time of year!
Well, that’s coming to an end…for now. As I alluded to in my two-week outlook, the end of January and start of February is bringing change. We’re returning to seasonable temperatures for the foreseeable future, and will be watching for a more active pattern heading into early February. I’ll have more on the pattern and outlook for February in a few days with my next two-week outlook. For now, let’s look at the week ahead.
The visible satellite image from this morning and afternoon.
Sunday-Monday
The next two days look quiet. Today, we’re dealing with a mixture of clouds and sun, but I expect dry conditions. Tomorrow is much of the same, but colder air begins to settle in. A clipper is expected to dive south of us later tonight into tomorrow. As it heads off the coast, it will deepen a bit as it moves northeast. I think the system is weak enough and far enough off the coast to keep us from experiencing anything but clouds, but I won’t rule out a flurry along the shoreline.
The next two days look quiet. Today, we’re dealing with a mixture of clouds and sun, but I expect dry conditions. Tomorrow is much of the same, but colder air begins to settle in. A clipper is expected to dive south of us later tonight into tomorrow. As it heads off the coast, it will deepen a bit as it moves northeast. I think the system is weak enough and far enough off the coast to keep us from experiencing anything but clouds, but I won’t rule out a flurry along the shoreline.
Tuesday-Wednesday
As you can see from the RGEM image above, the overall idea, shared by all the other guidance, is that the Sunday/Monday clipper has no impact on the state. What you can see from the end of that loop however, is another system approaching. That’s our weather maker for the forecast period.
On Tuesday, a more potent clipper works its way through the region. With cold air in place, accumulating snow seems likely. It will be a minor event, with snowfall currently expected on the order of 1-2” with an isolated area getting more. We will continue to monitor the trends with the system, as the GFS has trended better with the amount of precip that gets into the area, which is a potential flag. Right now it looks like light snow would begin from west to east early Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours. Evening delays are possible but unlikely if snow remains light throughout the day. Scattered snow showers will remain possible on Wednesday, with no accumulation expected.
As you can see from the RGEM image above, the overall idea, shared by all the other guidance, is that the Sunday/Monday clipper has no impact on the state. What you can see from the end of that loop however, is another system approaching. That’s our weather maker for the forecast period.
On Tuesday, a more potent clipper works its way through the region. With cold air in place, accumulating snow seems likely. It will be a minor event, with snowfall currently expected on the order of 1-2” with an isolated area getting more. We will continue to monitor the trends with the system, as the GFS has trended better with the amount of precip that gets into the area, which is a potential flag. Right now it looks like light snow would begin from west to east early Tuesday afternoon through the overnight hours. Evening delays are possible but unlikely if snow remains light throughout the day. Scattered snow showers will remain possible on Wednesday, with no accumulation expected.
4KM NAM 850mb temperatures (top) as snow overspreads the state on Tuesday. NAM temperatures are well below freezing throughout the column, including the surface (bottom) so there should be no precipitation type issues here.
Thursday-Saturday
After the system departs, cold air remains and we turn our attention to the pattern ahead. The guidance has been signaling the potential for a storm just outside of this forecast period. It’s something to keep an eye on but it is an eternity away.
After the system departs, cold air remains and we turn our attention to the pattern ahead. The guidance has been signaling the potential for a storm just outside of this forecast period. It’s something to keep an eye on but it is an eternity away.
GEFS showing the first few days of February being below normal overall. That's a marked difference from much of January.
The Dailies
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of a flurry along the shoreline. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of flurries 10%
Tuesday: Snow. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 80%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and colder with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of a flurry along the shoreline. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of flurries 10%
Tuesday: Snow. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 80%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny and colder with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
Thanks for reading SCW.
-DB
