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Forecaster Discussion--4/18/21

4/18/2021

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

After our big storm on Thursday and Friday that brought rain and snow to Connecticut, things calmed down in time for the weekend. The week ahead looks to continue our general pattern, which includes the typical New England spring seesaw between nice and unsettled conditions. Let's dive in. 
Picture
Above: a National Weather Service estimate of rain in CT over the last week, the majority fell during our spring storm. 

Monday
Tomorrow should start off nice, but we are likely to see increasing clouds as a line of showers and possibly some thunderstorms move through the state as a weak disturbance approaches. Western CT has the best chance of seeing showers or thunderstorms but it might be worthwhile having an umbrella handy for later in the day. Given the upper level profile, we're not expecting any severe weather. That said, some small hail or gusty winds may be possible. Temperatures should continue their upward rebound with highs in the 60s. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks like the pick of the week. In the wake of the disturbance we should see clearer skies and warmer temperatures. For inland areas, highs may top out around 70! If there's a day to get outside, Tuesday is it! 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the work week is more unsettled, with another disturbance passing to our north and west on Wednesday. This will bring us our best chance of rain for the week, though we do not expect the same kind of rainfall we saw this past week. The storm departs and we clear out for Thursday, but conditions look breezy as colder air advects in. Highs are likely to be in the lower 50s during this period. Friday we start to see a bit of a rebound, but it's still a bit cooler than we'd like, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 
Picture
Above: GFS depiction of the midweek system. Although it's looking increasingly likely that it will bring snow to parts of New England, we are not expecting much, if anything, here in CT. 

Saturday-Sunday
At first glance, the weekend is looking mixed. Most of Saturday currently looks ok, but we will be watching another weak system cross the region at some point on late Saturday or Sunday. Should the system reach us slower, Saturday would be a nice and seasonably warm day. That's where I lean currently. That means Sunday would feature cooler temperatures and shower chances. We're a ways out here, so let's see what future data suggests. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 60%

Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. Cooler. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

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Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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