May is here!
May tends to be the month where we start breaking toward summer, as we leave behind upper level patterns that favor much below normal temperatures. Unfortunately, that's not how our May 2021 will begin, as we continue to see generally unsettled conditions with seesaw temperature swings. Just today we went from 80 in Hartford to 60 as we saw rain roll into the region.
The week ahead is looking unsettled, again. Let's dive in.
Let's just get this out of the way now: virtually every day will bring a chance of rain. This is definitely an umbrella week. Tomorrow will bring some early possible showers, followed by cloudy conditions and more chances of showers as our first low pressure system of the week approaches. At least temperatures will be decent with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. If we get a little sun, we could be a little warmer.
Tuesday starts off wet, as the low pressure crosses the region overnight. The worst of the rain is overnight, but clouds and showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon. Highs look to be a few degrees cooler.
The middle of the week brings...you guessed it...more rain chances! Another low will develop and slowly move up the coast, bringing rain and slightly cooler temperatures. Here, we begin to see a split in the guidance. The GFS wants to clear us out quickly, making Thursday a potentially nice day. However, the Euro tries to keep the low from departing quickly, meaning we see rain showers through Thursday afternoon. I will split the difference and blend the guidance. I think we see what is close to a washout on Wednesday, followed by some early showers on Thursday and gradual clearing during the day. Temperatures are a bit cooler from early week, but they're seasonable.
Here's where things really get tricky. While both the GFS and Euro have another low set to impact us during this period, there's a big difference in when and how strong. The GFS (depicted below) has a big storm that impacts us Friday, bringing heavy rain, wind, and perhaps snow to higher elevation parts of New England. The Euro on the other hand, has a weaker storm that brings rain on Saturday. There's a lot of resolve here, and we'll just need to watch. For now, I lean toward the Euro, as both models have generally overdone the intensity of low pressure systems so far this spring. Another rain event could be possible by Sunday, but that's dependent on what happens with our Friday-Saturday possible low. That's a lot of rain chances!
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 80%
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early, followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain early 30%.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
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