Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

Forecaster Discussion--5/22/18

5/22/2018

Comments

 
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
The mopey weather we have seen today is on its way out, and much nicer times look to follow shortly after! Regarding the holiday weekend, it starts out looking decent, but ends in a bit of a mess. The main players in this mess will be a cold front from Canada and the remnants of a potential tropical system to our south. Models vary in the timing of these two factors, and that is something we will need to watch when forecasting for this weekend. Let’s get started.
 
Wednesday
A weak cold front will pass through early Wednesday morning, bringing scattered rain and showers before sunrise. This could make your commute to work a little wet, but any lingering rain should move out by mid-morning. Clouds will dissipate by noon, and expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures in the 70s with a NW flow. A chance for a passing shower exists late Wednesday night into Thursday as a very weak secondary front will pass through, otherwise things look clear.
 
Thursday–Saturday
High pressure looks to settle into the Northeast as we head into our weekend. Upper level ridging and a predominantly westerly flow will bring warm weather across New England. Temperatures in the low 80s seem likely across the state, with sunny skies. On Saturday though, a SW flow will bring in more humid air and a chance for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s.  
Picture
Sunday-Monday
Here is where things get interesting. A cold front is expected to pass through the state sometime Sunday. Now the timing of this cold front is important, since the intensity of the precip will depend on it. The GFS has a weak cold front passing through early Sunday, which would bring mostly showers and rain to CT. The Euro and Canadian models take the cold front through the state later in the day, and this combined with weak CAPE values across Southeastern CT could possibly produce a weak thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will be cooler, especially after the passing of the front, in the high 60s and low 70s.
 
Following the passage of the cold front, Sunday night some tropical energy ahead of the system in the Southeast looks to interact with the passing cold front. Decent forcing for ascent and the presence of moisture will create a wet system that will slowly move north overnight. This would indicate wet weather moving in early Monday morning and leaving Monday night. Again, this all depends on the timing of the cold front and the strength of the tropical energy, and with many factors at play it makes for a very complex and unpredictable system. I’m not feeling too confident the intensity of the rain, especially with the messy setup and the model variability. With that said, there will definitely be a chance for precipitation. Temperatures look to be in the upper 60s for the majority of the state. 
Picture
Tuesday
Depending on the track our potential tropical system takes, Tuesday could be either a hit or miss. The GFS and Canadian models take the remnants over CT for Tuesday, suggesting steady rain for the entire day. And the European model suggesting the system will miss us completely, with High pressure to the north forcing it under us before anything meaningful reaches the state. With the uncertainty regarding the track of the system, I’ll play this one safe and suggest a chance for rain on Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 60s.
 
The Dailies 
Wednesday: Showers tapering off early. Cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny by mid afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s.
 
Thursday: Sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70s.
 
Friday: Sunny skies. Highs in the lower 80s.
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 80s.
 
Sunday: Chance for showers or thundershowers. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
 
Monday:  Rain. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Tuesday: Chance for rain. Otherwise cloudy. Highs in the 60s.
  
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service