Good afternoon and happy May from SCW!
What a wonderful start to the month! A beautiful spring weekend finally arrived, with warmer than normal temperatures and sunny skies! After some showers overnight, we are clearing out nicely today, and we will see a true spring-like day. Hope you can enjoy it!
What a wonderful start to the month! A beautiful spring weekend finally arrived, with warmer than normal temperatures and sunny skies! After some showers overnight, we are clearing out nicely today, and we will see a true spring-like day. Hope you can enjoy it!
Above: GOES-E imagery from the day so far. Satellite imagery never gets old for this forecaster. Notice how the trees have mostly leafed out down south (the greener color) but in New England we're still well behind with large spots of brown! We're slowly getting there and by the end of the month, much if not all of the East Coast should be a beautiful green again!
While March can often be wintry and April is often a transition month, May is where we historically break toward spring (and summer). We've been well below normal lately, so let's start with some level setting of what is normal in May.
Hartford Normals
Average May 3 High Temperature: 67
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 44
May 3 Sunset: 7:51pm
Average May 31 High Temperature: 75
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 52
May 31 Sunset: 8:18pm
Average Rainfall: 4.35"
Bridgeport Normals
Average May 3 High Temperature: 64
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 47
May 3 Sunset: 7:52pm
Average May 31 High Temperature: 72
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 56
May 31 Sunset: 8:18pm
Average Rainfall: 3.80"
Who doesn't love warmer temperatures and longer days? Well, here's hoping that the second half of May is nice because the first half is not looking too great. Let's dive in.
While March can often be wintry and April is often a transition month, May is where we historically break toward spring (and summer). We've been well below normal lately, so let's start with some level setting of what is normal in May.
Hartford Normals
Average May 3 High Temperature: 67
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 44
May 3 Sunset: 7:51pm
Average May 31 High Temperature: 75
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 52
May 31 Sunset: 8:18pm
Average Rainfall: 4.35"
Bridgeport Normals
Average May 3 High Temperature: 64
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 47
May 3 Sunset: 7:52pm
Average May 31 High Temperature: 72
Average May 3 Low Temperature: 56
May 31 Sunset: 8:18pm
Average Rainfall: 3.80"
Who doesn't love warmer temperatures and longer days? Well, here's hoping that the second half of May is nice because the first half is not looking too great. Let's dive in.
Above: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the first half of May. Probabilities of a colder than normal start to May are a virtual lock.
Sunday-Monday
Just a quick look at today. It looks perfect. Clouds will clear out and we will see sunny and warm conditions. In fact, inland temperatures may be more reminiscent of our average Memorial Day! This won't last long, but if there is a saving grace, it does not look like most of the work week will be a washout. This will be a week of close calls and some pesky shower chances, followed by a big cold shot (for this time of year) by the weekend.
Monday looks decent. A cold front will cross the region tonight, and while tomorrow will start off nice, we will see increasing clouds and some shower chances by afternoon. Highs will be near normal.
Tuesday-Thursday
Both Tuesday and Wednesday look dry! Wednesday looks like a close call as there may be some showers associated with a weak low nearby. Any showers would be late in the day, however. Temperatures on both days will be cooler than normal, but not outrageously so. Thursday looks like the first day with more significant rain shower chances, but again, nothing that screams washout. These showers look more scattered in nature rather than a large shield of precipitation moving over the state.
Friday-Sunday
This looks like the unsettled period of the week. A big trough looks to swing in on Friday, bringing cooler than normal conditions. A storm is expected to develop as that occurs. Right now, the guidance has the storm mostly offshore, which would reduce our chances of rain, but even if we don't get significant rain we will see a big cold shot for this time of year. In fact, our source region will be the Arctic! Where was this during winter?
Fortunately for us, that doesn't mean snow in May, but it is an illustration of the kind of pattern we've been dealing with: colder than normal, with plenty of wet weather nearby. Look at the second image of 500mb heights! What a trough!
Sunday-Monday
Just a quick look at today. It looks perfect. Clouds will clear out and we will see sunny and warm conditions. In fact, inland temperatures may be more reminiscent of our average Memorial Day! This won't last long, but if there is a saving grace, it does not look like most of the work week will be a washout. This will be a week of close calls and some pesky shower chances, followed by a big cold shot (for this time of year) by the weekend.
Monday looks decent. A cold front will cross the region tonight, and while tomorrow will start off nice, we will see increasing clouds and some shower chances by afternoon. Highs will be near normal.
Tuesday-Thursday
Both Tuesday and Wednesday look dry! Wednesday looks like a close call as there may be some showers associated with a weak low nearby. Any showers would be late in the day, however. Temperatures on both days will be cooler than normal, but not outrageously so. Thursday looks like the first day with more significant rain shower chances, but again, nothing that screams washout. These showers look more scattered in nature rather than a large shield of precipitation moving over the state.
Friday-Sunday
This looks like the unsettled period of the week. A big trough looks to swing in on Friday, bringing cooler than normal conditions. A storm is expected to develop as that occurs. Right now, the guidance has the storm mostly offshore, which would reduce our chances of rain, but even if we don't get significant rain we will see a big cold shot for this time of year. In fact, our source region will be the Arctic! Where was this during winter?
Fortunately for us, that doesn't mean snow in May, but it is an illustration of the kind of pattern we've been dealing with: colder than normal, with plenty of wet weather nearby. Look at the second image of 500mb heights! What a trough!
Before the dailies, one more note. This week is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. Although it seems far away, hurricane season is just four weeks away. New England is not immune to hurricanes, and last year we had a fairly close call with Hurricane Dorian, which missed New England and hit the Canadian Maritimes as a strong post-tropical system with hurricane force winds.
In the middle of a pandemic, it is more important than ever to make sure you are prepared in case of severe weather or a tropical impact. I'll be back later this week to provide an overview of tropical weather in New England and how to prepare. All indications are that this hurricane season is going to be active...
In the middle of a pandemic, it is more important than ever to make sure you are prepared in case of severe weather or a tropical impact. I'll be back later this week to provide an overview of tropical weather in New England and how to prepare. All indications are that this hurricane season is going to be active...
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds and a chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds and a chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
