Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
June came in with a blowtorch and bang. Inland areas on Thursday and Friday saw highs well above normal, topping off in the upper 80s to low 90s. Friday, we saw fairly widespread hail reports, especially in eastern CT.
The weekend however, has been the complete opposite. We went from highs in the 90s on Friday to highs in the 60s, with late afternoon temperatures on both days dropping into the 50s. While there were some scattered showers, most stayed dry.
These highly anomalous temperatures will be moving out, bringing us closer, but still below, normal highs in the next week.
June Climatology
Hartford (BDL) on June 4th
Average High Temperature: 77
Average Low Temperature: 54
Hartford (BDL) on June 30th
Average High Temperature: 84
Average Low Temperature: 62
Monthly Rainfall: 4.28"
Annual Rainfall (to date): 22.17"
Bridgeport (BDR) on June 4th
Average High Temperature: 74
Average Low Temperature: 58
Bridgeport (BDR) on June 30th
Average High Temperature: 82
Average Low Temperature: 66
Monthly Rainfall: 3.77"
Annual Rainfall: 21.90"
June came in with a blowtorch and bang. Inland areas on Thursday and Friday saw highs well above normal, topping off in the upper 80s to low 90s. Friday, we saw fairly widespread hail reports, especially in eastern CT.
The weekend however, has been the complete opposite. We went from highs in the 90s on Friday to highs in the 60s, with late afternoon temperatures on both days dropping into the 50s. While there were some scattered showers, most stayed dry.
These highly anomalous temperatures will be moving out, bringing us closer, but still below, normal highs in the next week.
June Climatology
Hartford (BDL) on June 4th
Average High Temperature: 77
Average Low Temperature: 54
Hartford (BDL) on June 30th
Average High Temperature: 84
Average Low Temperature: 62
Monthly Rainfall: 4.28"
Annual Rainfall (to date): 22.17"
Bridgeport (BDR) on June 4th
Average High Temperature: 74
Average Low Temperature: 58
Bridgeport (BDR) on June 30th
Average High Temperature: 82
Average Low Temperature: 66
Monthly Rainfall: 3.77"
Annual Rainfall: 21.90"
Above: A Euro model analysis of the temperature roller coaster the last few days and forecast for temperature anomalies over the next week.
Monday
The general look of the work week is the same--mix of clouds and sun with a chance of showers. Tomorrow should have plenty of clouds like Sunday, but we should see warmer temperatures with highs on the order of low to mid 70s. While the chance of showers is very low relative to the rest of the week, there could be an isolated one with the offshore low still meandering to our east.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks somewhat interesting. We should see highs close to normal in the mid to upper 70s with a little less clouds early, but by afternoon we will see increasing clouds as a cold front approaches. A front, warmer surface temperatures, and a cold pool aloft (in this case, areas of instability in the most basic sense) means that there will be some ingredients for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.
Given the cold pool, hail looks to be the biggest risk. It's something we'll watch, but at this time widespread severe doesn't look likely as there are still questions over how much sun and instability we receive, along with a relatively low amount of moisture.
Monday
The general look of the work week is the same--mix of clouds and sun with a chance of showers. Tomorrow should have plenty of clouds like Sunday, but we should see warmer temperatures with highs on the order of low to mid 70s. While the chance of showers is very low relative to the rest of the week, there could be an isolated one with the offshore low still meandering to our east.
Tuesday
Tuesday looks somewhat interesting. We should see highs close to normal in the mid to upper 70s with a little less clouds early, but by afternoon we will see increasing clouds as a cold front approaches. A front, warmer surface temperatures, and a cold pool aloft (in this case, areas of instability in the most basic sense) means that there will be some ingredients for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.
Given the cold pool, hail looks to be the biggest risk. It's something we'll watch, but at this time widespread severe doesn't look likely as there are still questions over how much sun and instability we receive, along with a relatively low amount of moisture.
Above: the 00z high resolution NAM depicting Tuesday afternoon. It's still very early, and I am not posting for anything other than illustrative purposes. It shows enough instability for some stronger showers and storms during the afternoon.
Wednesday-Friday
We quiet down for the middle to end of the work week. In the wake of the front we're back to cooler daytime highs, but not nearly as cold as the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday should feature plenty of clouds and some shower chances. Friday may be a little better, but right now I am leaning toward the GFS, which has depicted showers still being around as we head into the weekend. For each of these days I don't see a washout, it's just something to be aware of.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking better at this point, but I am watching the potential of another front on Sunday bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms. It's still a long way out of course, but with sunnier skies, we may see highs back around normal.
We quiet down for the middle to end of the work week. In the wake of the front we're back to cooler daytime highs, but not nearly as cold as the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday should feature plenty of clouds and some shower chances. Friday may be a little better, but right now I am leaning toward the GFS, which has depicted showers still being around as we head into the weekend. For each of these days I don't see a washout, it's just something to be aware of.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking better at this point, but I am watching the potential of another front on Sunday bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms. It's still a long way out of course, but with sunnier skies, we may see highs back around normal.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%
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Monday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
