Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It is another spectacular night across Connecticut! Although it has been dry, especially across central and eastern Connecticut, it's hard to have an issue with the summer so far. We've seen long stretches of sunny, warm, and low humidity weather that have made outdoor activities possible without turning into a puddle.
That will change a bit this week. We will see the humidity turn up along with the temperature. The thing that won't change is the lack of opportunities for meaningful rainfall.
Let's dive in.
It is another spectacular night across Connecticut! Although it has been dry, especially across central and eastern Connecticut, it's hard to have an issue with the summer so far. We've seen long stretches of sunny, warm, and low humidity weather that have made outdoor activities possible without turning into a puddle.
That will change a bit this week. We will see the humidity turn up along with the temperature. The thing that won't change is the lack of opportunities for meaningful rainfall.
Let's dive in.
Above: The Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC) plot of precipitation departures from normal in the last 60 days. During this period, the state has seen much less rainfall than normal. For this reason, much of the state is in a moderate drought.
Monday
Tomorrow is when we start turning up the heat and humidity. It won't be too bad, as temperatures won't be that much higher than today, but the warmer temps and slight increase in humidity will be noticeable on a southwest flow. Overall, it's not a terrible day, as we will see continued dry and sunny conditions.
Tuesday
Tuesday is the most meaningful chance we see right now for rainfall during the forecast period. It will be hot and humid ahead of an advancing front, and the heat index will become a factor. Air temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The National Weather Service may issue heat advisories as heat indices may end up in the mid 90s for at least central CT.
Most of the day should be dry. A slight risk is centered to the NW of the state because the timing of the showers and storms will not work for widespread severe thunderstorms here.
Right now, I think we see scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours. The recent trend has been toward a drier frontal passage, so I won't be giving the rain chance here high odds. While I won't rule out a severe thunderstorm, given the current timing I think any severe weather is isolated. We'll continue to watch in case things change in the next 24-36 hours.
Monday
Tomorrow is when we start turning up the heat and humidity. It won't be too bad, as temperatures won't be that much higher than today, but the warmer temps and slight increase in humidity will be noticeable on a southwest flow. Overall, it's not a terrible day, as we will see continued dry and sunny conditions.
Tuesday
Tuesday is the most meaningful chance we see right now for rainfall during the forecast period. It will be hot and humid ahead of an advancing front, and the heat index will become a factor. Air temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The National Weather Service may issue heat advisories as heat indices may end up in the mid 90s for at least central CT.
Most of the day should be dry. A slight risk is centered to the NW of the state because the timing of the showers and storms will not work for widespread severe thunderstorms here.
Right now, I think we see scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours. The recent trend has been toward a drier frontal passage, so I won't be giving the rain chance here high odds. While I won't rule out a severe thunderstorm, given the current timing I think any severe weather is isolated. We'll continue to watch in case things change in the next 24-36 hours.
Above: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for Tuesday. Although part of NW CT is in the slight risk, I currently think Tuesday does not bring anything other than an isolated severe storm risk.
Wednesday
The middle of the week may start out cloudy if the front is slow to depart, but high pressure is likely to build in gradually and clear things out once again. That won't change the temperature outlook though, as I expect highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s again. Humidity should be coming down a bit.
Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week will continue to be warm, but I think we see the humidity continue to drop during this period. Once again, it looks dry. The GFS tries to spin up a weak non-tropical low off the coast on Thursday, but I am not buying at this time. The Euro tries something similar, but right now I think high pressure dominates. We'll be watching. I will put in low odds for now.
The middle of the week may start out cloudy if the front is slow to depart, but high pressure is likely to build in gradually and clear things out once again. That won't change the temperature outlook though, as I expect highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s again. Humidity should be coming down a bit.
Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week will continue to be warm, but I think we see the humidity continue to drop during this period. Once again, it looks dry. The GFS tries to spin up a weak non-tropical low off the coast on Thursday, but I am not buying at this time. The Euro tries something similar, but right now I think high pressure dominates. We'll be watching. I will put in low odds for now.
|
|
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend looks fine at this time. We will be watching whether we see some activity along another front on Sunday, but for now, I lean drier. Temperatures look seasonable both days, and as we get closer to the second half of the month, that means quite warm.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
The weekend looks fine at this time. We will be watching whether we see some activity along another front on Sunday, but for now, I lean drier. Temperatures look seasonable both days, and as we get closer to the second half of the month, that means quite warm.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, hot, and humid. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Finally, in a new SCW feature, I want to take time to do a quick tropical update at the end of my Forecaster Discussions.
SCW Tropical Update
SCW Tropical Update
While the Atlantic Basin has been quiet, we always have to watch what I call the "Homebrew region" in the Gulf of Mexico, Southeast US coast, and western Caribbean.
Usually, even when the broader basin is quiet or the overall environment is unfavorable, as it is now, something can sneak in along a stalled cold front, offshore thunderstorm complex, or weak wave that managed to cross the Atlantic.
That's what we have here, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 30% odds for an area of low pressure to develop along a decaying front in the next 5 day in the shaded yellow (lemon) area. The guidance has had a mixed signal on development chances for this one, but if you are interested in tropical generally this is worth a casual eye.
There is nothing that anyone in CT needs to be concerned about.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Usually, even when the broader basin is quiet or the overall environment is unfavorable, as it is now, something can sneak in along a stalled cold front, offshore thunderstorm complex, or weak wave that managed to cross the Atlantic.
That's what we have here, as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 30% odds for an area of low pressure to develop along a decaying front in the next 5 day in the shaded yellow (lemon) area. The guidance has had a mixed signal on development chances for this one, but if you are interested in tropical generally this is worth a casual eye.
There is nothing that anyone in CT needs to be concerned about.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
