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Forecaster Discussion--8/12/18

8/12/2018

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Good afternoon from SCW.

This'll be a pretty short forecast, as we continue the dog days of summer locked in a wet, humid, and warm pattern. No real end seems to be in sight at the moment. 

Monday-Wednesday
It seems like it has been an unusual season of upper level lows. These critters tend to be more of a spring feature, traversing slowly across a region, but we've certainly seen our fair share during the summer. Another one will be making its way northeast over the first half of the week, and with it, we see a warm and humid flow bringing more chances of heavy rain and thunderstorms. These should be scattered in nature for the most part, but I'd have my umbrella with me each day just in case. Expect warm and humid conditions, with highs in the 80s each day. With these storms come the potential (albeit low) of some severe weather. 

Some of the guidance is moving the upper low out faster, which means that Wednesday is likely to be the driest day of the early part of the week. Still, I think we see continued rain chances. At least early on. 
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Thursday
Thursday looks like it might be the only dry day of the week. As the low departs, we should see a ridge of high pressure try to build in briefly. If the progression happens as anticipated, Thursday will be warm, humid, and dry. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend looks unsettled at the start. How unsettled we are and for how long remains to be seen. I think we'll see another area of disturbed weather try to nose in on Friday, bringing shower chances, followed by lingering showers early on Saturday. Afterward, we may see another area of high pressure coming in that may help bring our rain chances (and humidity) down a bit. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 40%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers, followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

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-DB​
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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