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Forecaster Discussion--8/16/21

8/16/2021

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Our Monday was phenomenal, and it continued the beautiful couple of days we've had. Our Tuesday is looking decent, but increasing clouds will herald the arrival of an unsettled pattern for the next few days. The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, which made landfall along the Florida coast earlier today, may also feature in our forecast. Let's dive in. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
As I mentioned above, tomorrow is looking decent. We will see increasing clouds as the day progresses, and a gradual increase in humidity. A high pressure system is moving east, meaning that there will be a relatively low chance of showers tomorrow. Temperatures look a bit below normal, but seasonable. 

Wednesday brings an increasing chance of showers. We will see increased moisture, which means more humidity. The tradeoff with the lower temperatures will be clouds and showers. And humidity. Wednesday doesn't look like a washout, but some heavier showers cannot be ruled out as moisture from the south flows into the region. We will then turn our attention to what's left of Fred. 
Picture
Above: The WPC excessive rainfall outlook for the next three days. Note it doesn't show the period that Fred's remnants are expected to impact CT. If the projected track holds, I think we see a slight risk added to for Thursday. 

Thursday-Friday
Thursday is the day we expect the greatest rainfall potential as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred reach the region. At this time, it is unclear what the exact track will look like, and some guidance takes the heaviest rain to our south and west. Even so, there is going to be an increased chance of heavy rain on Thursday that could create flash flooding conditions. This is something we'll continue to watch.

We're not expecting any significant wind or coastal impacts as this storm will have weakened considerably by the time it gets to New England.

Early Friday should continue to see some showers from Fred, but the system should clear the area fairly early. We will still likely see mostly cloudy skies, high humidity, and shower chances. 
Picture
Above: GFS depiction of rainfall for the week. It shows how the remnants of Fred bring rain on Thursday, but the worst, at least on this model run, are held to our west. It wouldn't take much of a change to bring the heaviest rain over CT, which could cause flash flooding issues. 

Saturday-Monday

Unfortunately, the unsettled pattern will likely continue through the weekend. Temperatures will be on the rise a bit, but the humidity, clouds, and rain chances will continue. For now, we don't see a lot of thunderstorm activity for the week, but with the amount of moisture in the air, in a number of instances the rain showers that develop will be downpours. 

The Dailies
Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:

Saturday:

Sunday:

Monday

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Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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