Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
After another warm and dry weekend, we finally have what looks like a meaningful chance of rainfall. After that, we go back to warm to hot conditions, but as I said a few weeks ago, the worst of the heat looks to be over. Let's dive in.
After another warm and dry weekend, we finally have what looks like a meaningful chance of rainfall. After that, we go back to warm to hot conditions, but as I said a few weeks ago, the worst of the heat looks to be over. Let's dive in.
Above: the SPC HREF mean for the next two days. I think this may be a little overdone, but this is probably the best setup for decent rainfall we've seen all summer.
Monday-Tuesday
This is the time frame where rain is likely. It won't rain all the time, but we will see periods of widespread showers and heavier rainfall tomorrow and again on Tuesday.
What's the reason I am finally feeling better about rain chances? We will have a warm front cross into the region tonight that will become a focal point as a weak area of low pressure develop and crosses the boundary. This kind of setup tends to wring out moisture from the atmosphere. Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy and cooler than normal with the rain, but it'll also feel humid as we will have a significant amount of moisture in the air.
What can go wrong? While I do think we all see decent rains, we're looking at rainfall that may be more convective in nature, which means scattered and location dependent. There will be a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe.
Overall however, I think it's wise to expect a widespread .50" to 1 inch of rain, with the potential for a widespread 1-2 inches over the two days if everything breaks right. It won't end the drought, but it will be a big help as we head into September.
Monday-Tuesday
This is the time frame where rain is likely. It won't rain all the time, but we will see periods of widespread showers and heavier rainfall tomorrow and again on Tuesday.
What's the reason I am finally feeling better about rain chances? We will have a warm front cross into the region tonight that will become a focal point as a weak area of low pressure develop and crosses the boundary. This kind of setup tends to wring out moisture from the atmosphere. Monday and Tuesday will be cloudy and cooler than normal with the rain, but it'll also feel humid as we will have a significant amount of moisture in the air.
What can go wrong? While I do think we all see decent rains, we're looking at rainfall that may be more convective in nature, which means scattered and location dependent. There will be a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe.
Overall however, I think it's wise to expect a widespread .50" to 1 inch of rain, with the potential for a widespread 1-2 inches over the two days if everything breaks right. It won't end the drought, but it will be a big help as we head into September.
Above: 18z GFS depicting the multiple bouts of rain. It also has a period of heavy rain tomorrow afternoon. That would certainly be welcomed.
Below: the 12z Euro depicting something similar. The warm front serves as the focal point for low pressure and a nice rainfall.
Below: the 12z Euro depicting something similar. The warm front serves as the focal point for low pressure and a nice rainfall.
Wednesday-Friday
In the wake of the boundary and low, we warm up quite a bit. It'll be sunny, warm, with some humidity. It won't be oppressive however and should be manageable. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with some hot spots possibly touching 90.
Saturday-Sunday
At this time, the last weekend of August is looking sunny and warm, but we'll be watching whether we have a front pass through or a coastal low develop to our south, which could bring some clouds.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
SCW Tropical Update
In the wake of the boundary and low, we warm up quite a bit. It'll be sunny, warm, with some humidity. It won't be oppressive however and should be manageable. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with some hot spots possibly touching 90.
Saturday-Sunday
At this time, the last weekend of August is looking sunny and warm, but we'll be watching whether we have a front pass through or a coastal low develop to our south, which could bring some clouds.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
SCW Tropical Update
The tropics have been unusually quiet, but we're now entering the climatological peak of the season. There is one area to causally watch way out in the Atlantic, but it may be the one after this (not pictured) that could be our first long track system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
For now, there is no threat to CT or the US, but the overall upper level pattern looks like we will need to watch for potential threats in early September.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
For now, there is no threat to CT or the US, but the overall upper level pattern looks like we will need to watch for potential threats in early September.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
