Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It was a blah kind of day, with clouds and showers across the state. The dog days of summer have definitely arrived, with a return to the heat, humidity, and daily shower chances in the week ahead.
It was a blah kind of day, with clouds and showers across the state. The dog days of summer have definitely arrived, with a return to the heat, humidity, and daily shower chances in the week ahead.
Above: a GFS projection of the upper level pattern toward the end of next week. The expanse of the ridging suggests that heat and humidity are a high likelihood.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the work week comes with the continued influence of the small area of low pressure that we had impact our weather today. Showers will be possible, especially near the coast, and clouds are likely to dominate once again.
Tuesday is the transition day, as the low departs and we start to get some clearing. Both the heat and humidity will be on the rise, but it won't compare to the heat of the following days. Like Monday, Tuesday will have a chance of showers and storms, but the odds won't be terribly high.
Wednesday-Friday
This is the period where our next heat wave is possible, as we expect highs in the 90s through the period, especially inland. The upper level pattern that I highlighted earlier will bring hazy, hot, and humid conditions to the state, and heat advisories seem like a good bet at some point during this period. Each day will bring the chance of thunderstorms, but Thursday evening or early Friday currently look like the best time as a cold front pushes toward the region. Timing could change so stay tuned.
Monday-Tuesday
The start of the work week comes with the continued influence of the small area of low pressure that we had impact our weather today. Showers will be possible, especially near the coast, and clouds are likely to dominate once again.
Tuesday is the transition day, as the low departs and we start to get some clearing. Both the heat and humidity will be on the rise, but it won't compare to the heat of the following days. Like Monday, Tuesday will have a chance of showers and storms, but the odds won't be terribly high.
Wednesday-Friday
This is the period where our next heat wave is possible, as we expect highs in the 90s through the period, especially inland. The upper level pattern that I highlighted earlier will bring hazy, hot, and humid conditions to the state, and heat advisories seem like a good bet at some point during this period. Each day will bring the chance of thunderstorms, but Thursday evening or early Friday currently look like the best time as a cold front pushes toward the region. Timing could change so stay tuned.
Above: the GFS depiction of temperature anomalies through much of the forecast period. Note the peak departures during the expected heat wave, and then some relief by the weekend.
Saturday-Sunday
In the wake of the cold front, we should see a return to more seasonable conditions. For now, I am penciling in highs in the 80s, with lower humidity and sunny skies. By next weekend however, we could be watching the tropics with a very close eye. More on that in a minute.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 80s.
Tropical Update
Saturday-Sunday
In the wake of the cold front, we should see a return to more seasonable conditions. For now, I am penciling in highs in the 80s, with lower humidity and sunny skies. By next weekend however, we could be watching the tropics with a very close eye. More on that in a minute.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 80s.
Tropical Update
Above: the latest areas of interest in the Atlantic. The peak of hurricane season is approaching and this is the time of year activity generally starts to pick up.
Finally, let's talk tropics. We are currently watching two areas of interest in the Atlantic, but the one I am eying more is the lead wave, Invest 94L. I've actually been watching it for a few days now, but it was designated as an invest today. An invest is basically an area of interest that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching. 94L is trying to organize near the Lesser Antilles, but could have a fairly hostile environment ahead. The current odds of development within 5 days are 60%.
Guidance is slowly coming around to it developing and making a close approach to the US. Given the upper level pattern with ridging and a nearby trough, we will be watching to see what happens just outside of our forecast range. For now, it's far from anything worth buying bread and milk over, but we'll be watching.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
Finally, let's talk tropics. We are currently watching two areas of interest in the Atlantic, but the one I am eying more is the lead wave, Invest 94L. I've actually been watching it for a few days now, but it was designated as an invest today. An invest is basically an area of interest that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching. 94L is trying to organize near the Lesser Antilles, but could have a fairly hostile environment ahead. The current odds of development within 5 days are 60%.
Guidance is slowly coming around to it developing and making a close approach to the US. Given the upper level pattern with ridging and a nearby trough, we will be watching to see what happens just outside of our forecast range. For now, it's far from anything worth buying bread and milk over, but we'll be watching.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading.
-DB
