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Forecaster Discussion--9/15/19

9/15/2019

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Good evening from SCW. 

Halfway through September! Time continues to fly as we are just a few days away now from the official start of Fall. We're at the time of year where even above normal temperatures like today can feel great. The week ahead looks wonderful, with a brief return to cooler conditions before we warm up again by the next weekend. Let's jump in! 
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A GOES-16 look at Tropical Storm Humberto, which is gradually organizing and should intensify into our third hurricane of the topical Atlantic season tonight. Humberto's long term track is a bit uncertain, but it is unlikely at this point to impact New England. 

Monday
Tomorrow is likely to be our "worst" day of the week, as a weak area of low pressure approaches the region. The day looks to be mostly dry, but there will be shower chances and cloudy conditions. Tomorrow looks to be a touch cooler than today. 

Tuesday-Friday
This'll be a short forecast, because the rest of the week looks fantastic. A ridge of high pressure will develop and traverse the region, and that means we will see wonderful days and crisp, cool evenings. Like GP said in his earlier forecast, the general trend is warmer than normal, but this is one of those times where we see cooler than normal conditions for a brief period. Highs will struggle to reach 70 by the middle of the week with lows in the 40s! It'll be a taste of fall for sure. 
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Look at that cool snap! Here's the GFS Ensemble showing a cool down during the week, followed by a warm up by the weekend. 

Saturday-Sunday
We will be watching what Humberto eventually does (especially when it comes to wave height and rip current risk), but all indications are that the weekend will be beautiful and warmer than normal. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low 70s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.  

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. ​

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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