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Forecaster Discussion. End of Frigid Temps?- 11/23/18

11/23/2018

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​Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
   Hope you all enjoyed a nice Thanksgiving Day with friends and family and were able to stay warm! As you may have noticed, brutally cold temperatures have taken the state by storm. Unseasonable cold remains in place through early Saturday morning with ‘warmer’, closer to normal temperatures returning to the state as winds shift from a northerly, north-westerly direction to a southwesterly wind starting on Saturday afternoon, ahead of our next weather maker. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 20s inland to the upper 20s to around 30 at the shore, as Long Island Sound temperatures are still relatively warm, influencing temperatures at the shore.
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   For your Saturday, I previously mentioned that frigid temperatures will subside and head to more normal numbers, this is due to a storm system moving in from the Midwest switching wind direction to a southwesterly flow. It looks as though, outside of the initial snow squalls on Wednesday night, this “Arctic intrusion” will bear no major snow events. Temperatures should be warm enough that when the precipitation it will be all wet, and no white.  Early on Saturday morning, temperatures will range from the low teens into the 20s statewide, but will moderate very quickly as we head through the rest of Saturday. In fact, our high temperature will be had during Saturday evening in the middle of the rain event. Temps inland top out around the mid 40s, with low 50s to be found in southern CT, as you get closer to the shore. As far as the rain, there could be some minor flooding during at the height of the event during the overnight hours of Saturday. Total rainfall statewide looks to be between .75 and 1.5 inches of rain, not quite just a nuisance event, but not quite a widespread major flooding event either. Rain continues through Saturday night into Sunday, but the good news is, rain should end by the middle of the morning on Sunday, with temperatures again rising through the 40s statewide. As you can see, we do get a respite from those frigid temperatures, and wintry precipitation will be held to a minimum, at the expense of some rain. You take the good with the bad.
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​   Now I know most of you are thinking, “yeah, the cold air ends and there isn’t any wintry precipitation expected over the next 2 to 3 days, but when should we expect winter conditions again?” Well, I will answer this question very cautiously. I don’t see any “Arctic intrusions” to hit the state for a solid part of the next week, if at all. As for snow, I will also cautiously say that snow through next week looks unlikely. Right now we are tracking a storm system for Monday into Tuesday, and as of now, it looks as though it will track into the Great Lakes promoting ‘mild’ temperatures and liquid precipitation for the region. As with weather though, this is all still 3 to 4 days away and the situation remains fluid. Beyond the Monday/Tuesday storm system, the weather looks tranquil from next Tuesday through early next weekend, with daytime highs in the 40s dropping back into the upper 20s and low 30s at night.
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​A brief look at the next 2 weeks shows that storm tracks may not be so favorable for snowfall, and our cold air supply looks to be all but shut-off in this period. Storm tracks look to put Connecticut in the warm sector for the most part, outside of some onset or backside snow or sleet, I am not expecting very much in the way of wintry precipitation over the next 2 weeks. 
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Now a look at the extended forecast:
 
Today: Sunny and unseasonably cold, highs struggling to get out of the 20s.
Tonight: Mostly clear and frigid, temperatures in the upper single digits to teens statewide
Saturday: Cold and mostly clear early, clouds move in during the afternoon, temperatures moderate into the 40s.
Saturday night: Cloudy early, rain moves in. Temperatures 40s inland, approaching 50 at the shore.
Sunday: Rain early, then clearing, highs 40-45 statewide.
Sunday night: Mostly clear, temperatures in the low to mid 30s statewide, some of the colder spots in NWCT move back into the upper 20s.
Monday: Clear early, clouds move in during the afternoon and evening, highs in the 40s.
Monday night: Cloudy with rain, temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s.
Tuesday: Rain early, clearing starts mid-morning, highs in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Temperatures upper 20s and 30s.
Wednesday through Friday (11/30): Partly cloudy, highs in the low to mid 40s. Nighttime temperatures ranging from the upper 20s through the low 30s.

As always, thank you for continuing to read and support Southern Connecticut Weather! Have a great rest of your day and stay warm!- Tim
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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