Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Currently we have dry conditions across the state with temperatures in the 50s statewide. The dry conditions will change as a disturbance enters the area from the southwest and west bring showers and thunderstorms with it. The rain will impact the area from later this afternoon through tomorrow evening while temperatures stay quite moderate. Even lows for tomorrow evening do not look to get out of the upper 40s. Rain could be quite moderate to heavy statewide with about a half inch to an inch of rain falling before all is said and done, wouldn't rule out a rumble of thunder two as well. Rain looks to taper off later Monday night setting the table for a nice Tuesday with temps in the low to mid 50s.
Currently we have dry conditions across the state with temperatures in the 50s statewide. The dry conditions will change as a disturbance enters the area from the southwest and west bring showers and thunderstorms with it. The rain will impact the area from later this afternoon through tomorrow evening while temperatures stay quite moderate. Even lows for tomorrow evening do not look to get out of the upper 40s. Rain could be quite moderate to heavy statewide with about a half inch to an inch of rain falling before all is said and done, wouldn't rule out a rumble of thunder two as well. Rain looks to taper off later Monday night setting the table for a nice Tuesday with temps in the low to mid 50s.
Then the forecast looks to get rather dicey heading past Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Models bring a fairly substantial low pressure system into the area Wednesday morning or afternoon and with cold air filtering down through New England, courtesy of a strong, cold Canadian high pressure system, that could mean substantial snows all the way to the shoreline. Now there are some big questions to be answered between now and Wednesday. Most of them have to do with low track and intensity, which will affect temperature, precipitation, and QPF. Models such as the GFS and Euro bring a substantial amount of precipitation to the area, but the Euro brings the low track much closer to the shore, therefor flipping the shoreline to heavy rain as mid and surface layers of the atmosphere are flooded with warm air. The Euro still brings a moderate amount of snow to the state all the way to the shoreline before a changeover to plain rain in places south of I84. The GFS tracks the low further away from the coast but still looks a little warm in the mid and surface levels of the atmosphere, but, the GFS does bring snow to the area, very close to the amount portrayed by the Euro.
Looking at models such as the short term NAM and the Canadian GGEM, those models like to keep the low very much offshore and thus limiting impacts. The GGEM itself does also look a bit warm in its temperature profile, but does tend to have a warm bias as a whole. Confidence is growing that the area does see a holiday travel impacting storm, just have to watch the fine details and storm track is critical, a slight track to the south and east could bury the state with a major snowfall, while an adjustment to the north and west could bring the state much more rain and wind. All said, prepare to have holiday travel at least somewhat impacted. If models do continue to show the same results, a first call snowfall map will be put out tomorrow evening.
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Other impacts from the storm, as with most nor'easters, could be winds and coastal flooding, especially later Wednesday afternoon and night as the storm really begins to intensify just off the coast. Euro shows sustained winds of 20-30 mph at the shore with gusts over 50 mph, while the GFS shows very much the same.
Temperatures as portrayed by the models are very borderline for any kind of snowfall, basically in the 32-35 degree range, meaning a very wet, heavy snow. So any kind of snow that falls will be very much intensity dependent and dynamics driven. Meaning precipitation intensity would need to be quite substantial to get any kind of accumulation, especially as you head toward the shore. Have to watch how far a strong, cold , Canadian high makes it south before the storm low gets up here. The high pressure system would bring even colder temps into the area if it descended far enough south and affect storm track, if the high doesn't make it far enough south, the low pressure system will track closer to the coast and with less cold air to work with, that means mostly rain.
So to sum up, moderate to high impact storm looking more and more likely for Wednesday and Thursday. Could be major impacts to holiday travel with a moderate snowfall looking very possible for the entire state to the shoreline. Watching the models and strong Canadian high pressure placement to determine track of nor'easter. Coastal flooding and wind also look to be moderate impacts from the low pressure system, especially later Wednesday into Thursday as low really begins to wrap itself up and strengthen. Will be watching very closely, and will be our main focus over the coming days.
Have a good rest of your Wednesday everyone, and take caution if you need to travel later this evening through tomorrow as some moderate rain moves into the area. Stay tuned for more updates as needed!- Tim
