Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather
After a very nice Sunday, we have a potentially unsettled week ahead. For reasons explained below however, I am becoming less bullish on our chances of “interesting” weather. I lean toward us continuing the boring and dry period we’ve been in for quite some time, but at least we have something to talk about.
Overall, we’re looking at a very impressive warmup early in the week, followed by a potentially unsettled period at the end of the week and weekend as we watch a quasi-tropical entity and area of low pressure from a deep trough. Let’s dive in.
Monday through Wednesday
Well, we’re into the second half of October, and guess what? The heat is on, again. The first half of the week will be dominated by unusually strong ridging in the south that will bring significantly warmer than normal temperatures and a fair amount of humidity for the second half of October. With higher dew points, we should also expect fog late Monday night into early Tuesday.
After a very nice Sunday, we have a potentially unsettled week ahead. For reasons explained below however, I am becoming less bullish on our chances of “interesting” weather. I lean toward us continuing the boring and dry period we’ve been in for quite some time, but at least we have something to talk about.
Overall, we’re looking at a very impressive warmup early in the week, followed by a potentially unsettled period at the end of the week and weekend as we watch a quasi-tropical entity and area of low pressure from a deep trough. Let’s dive in.
Monday through Wednesday
Well, we’re into the second half of October, and guess what? The heat is on, again. The first half of the week will be dominated by unusually strong ridging in the south that will bring significantly warmer than normal temperatures and a fair amount of humidity for the second half of October. With higher dew points, we should also expect fog late Monday night into early Tuesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday in particular look like torch days, as we maximize 850mb temperatures and see temps soar into the low 80s with strong ridging in the east. Temperatures will easily be 15-20 degrees above normal, quite a feat any time of the year.
GEFS Temp anomaly for the week. Wow! Look at this fall “heat dome”! Very impressive for this time of year…though we saw absurd ridging during December of last year.
Thursday-Friday
Although we’re still pretty warm Thursday, we’re on a downward descent with temperatures as we turn our attention to a digging trough to our west and a potential area of low pressure off of the east coast. Earlier in the week, it looked like the Atlantic low would become entrained by the cold front, bringing significant rain to New England Friday through the weekend. That has become less clear recently, with guidance keeping the Atlantic low well out to sea. It’s something to watch, but right now, I favor cloudy and unsettled conditions without a washout occurring. That's almost a shame, because we still need the rain.
Thursday-Friday
Although we’re still pretty warm Thursday, we’re on a downward descent with temperatures as we turn our attention to a digging trough to our west and a potential area of low pressure off of the east coast. Earlier in the week, it looked like the Atlantic low would become entrained by the cold front, bringing significant rain to New England Friday through the weekend. That has become less clear recently, with guidance keeping the Atlantic low well out to sea. It’s something to watch, but right now, I favor cloudy and unsettled conditions without a washout occurring. That's almost a shame, because we still need the rain.
The weekend
Should my forecast hold, I expect there to be continued clouds and showers early on Saturday, but we clear by the afternoon and see a nice day Sunday. With the cold front pushing through, I expect temperatures significantly cooler, with temps struggling to reach the 60s.
Should my forecast hold, I expect there to be continued clouds and showers early on Saturday, but we clear by the afternoon and see a nice day Sunday. With the cold front pushing through, I expect temperatures significantly cooler, with temps struggling to reach the 60s.
GFS depiction of the unsettled weather for the latter half of the week. The guidance has jumped around quite a bit, so my forecast from Thursday on is of lower than normal confidence.
The dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Fog early, but turning sunny and warm. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Fog early, but sunny and warm. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain late 20%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with lingering rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain early 30%.
Sunday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Thanks for reading!
-DB
The dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Fog early, but turning sunny and warm. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Fog early, but sunny and warm. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain late 20%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with lingering rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain early 30%.
Sunday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Thanks for reading!
-DB
