Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
A wet and cool day today for all of us here in Connecticut. Guidance is indicating that we will be entering into a colder regime for the coming week, as winter is upon us! I’m sure all of you are anxious to hear about the storm for Thursday night, and we will cover it vaguely here because tomorrow we will have a full discussion on the details and possible snowfall totals. Besides the system for Thursday night, colder temperatures and better weather lie ahead.
Current Setup
A shortwave trough moves off the coast of New England tonight and a cold front will pass through Connecticut this evening. High pressure builds to our north Wednesday and moves off the coast of Maine for Thursday. A closed-off low will develop from the southeast due to a strengthening southerly trough. This low will track up the coast and southeast of CT. Following the passage of this system, high pressure builds in over the mid-Atlantic states.
A wet and cool day today for all of us here in Connecticut. Guidance is indicating that we will be entering into a colder regime for the coming week, as winter is upon us! I’m sure all of you are anxious to hear about the storm for Thursday night, and we will cover it vaguely here because tomorrow we will have a full discussion on the details and possible snowfall totals. Besides the system for Thursday night, colder temperatures and better weather lie ahead.
Current Setup
A shortwave trough moves off the coast of New England tonight and a cold front will pass through Connecticut this evening. High pressure builds to our north Wednesday and moves off the coast of Maine for Thursday. A closed-off low will develop from the southeast due to a strengthening southerly trough. This low will track up the coast and southeast of CT. Following the passage of this system, high pressure builds in over the mid-Atlantic states.
The deepening trough at 500 mb is going to be our weather maker for Thursday.
Wednesday
Strong high pressure will make for clear skies and cooler weather on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the 30s statewide, and a northwesterly wind will make it feel even colder. Definitely a day to bundle up because this is our first blast of cold air for the season. Lows could reach the teens at night, as clouds will build in early Thursday morning.
Thursday
A shortwave trough will intensify and move up the coast during the day Thursday. High pressure to our northeast will strongly influence the cold air damming associated with this event. Cold air damming (CAD) is when the surface and lower levels of the atmosphere remain cool because of lower tropospheric cold advection against some type of topography. This would refreeze any liquid precipitation that may have melted due to a mid-tropospheric warm layer and cause freezing rain or an icing event. For this event, it looks like a snow to mix to rain event for most of the state. Heavy snow moves in Thursday evening, and sometime overnight switches to sleet and freezing rain, then to all rain. What we are watching is how intense the snowfall will be initially, and when the changeover is to rain. We will gauge snowfall totals and risks associated with this storm tomorrow.
Wednesday
Strong high pressure will make for clear skies and cooler weather on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the 30s statewide, and a northwesterly wind will make it feel even colder. Definitely a day to bundle up because this is our first blast of cold air for the season. Lows could reach the teens at night, as clouds will build in early Thursday morning.
Thursday
A shortwave trough will intensify and move up the coast during the day Thursday. High pressure to our northeast will strongly influence the cold air damming associated with this event. Cold air damming (CAD) is when the surface and lower levels of the atmosphere remain cool because of lower tropospheric cold advection against some type of topography. This would refreeze any liquid precipitation that may have melted due to a mid-tropospheric warm layer and cause freezing rain or an icing event. For this event, it looks like a snow to mix to rain event for most of the state. Heavy snow moves in Thursday evening, and sometime overnight switches to sleet and freezing rain, then to all rain. What we are watching is how intense the snowfall will be initially, and when the changeover is to rain. We will gauge snowfall totals and risks associated with this storm tomorrow.
NAM model run for the system on Thursday night.
This snapshot shows an ideal setup for CAD. High pressure to the northeast, a kink in the isobars, and overrunning precipitation from the storm.
Friday - Sunday
Rain in the early morning will move out by midday. Temperatures will drop immediately after into the low 30s as the wind picks up. High pressure will build in late Friday into Saturday.
Saturday looks like a cool day with temperatures in the 40s and sunny skies. Chance for clouds to build in Saturday night into Sunday as a weak system begins to form over New England. By Sunday there is a slight chance for a passing shower or even snow shower as temperatures will remain around freezing.
Monday - Tuesday
A quick frontal system passes through bringing a chance for rain showers or even a possibility for snow showers in the Litchfield hills, but it is still too early to call. Tuesday high pressure builds and temperatures should climb back to the upper 40s.
The Dailies
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Chilly and breezy.
Thursday: Cloudy. Snow developing in the evening, changing over to wintry mix late. Highs in the low 30s.
Friday: Wintry mix changing to rain early in the morning. Rain tapering off by mid-afternoon. Highs in the low 40s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny becoming cloudy. Chance for a passing snow shower late. Highs in the low 40s.
Monday: Rain showers and possibly snow showers. Highs in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Becoming sunny and highs in the 40s.
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy the rest of your evening!
-LD
Rain in the early morning will move out by midday. Temperatures will drop immediately after into the low 30s as the wind picks up. High pressure will build in late Friday into Saturday.
Saturday looks like a cool day with temperatures in the 40s and sunny skies. Chance for clouds to build in Saturday night into Sunday as a weak system begins to form over New England. By Sunday there is a slight chance for a passing shower or even snow shower as temperatures will remain around freezing.
Monday - Tuesday
A quick frontal system passes through bringing a chance for rain showers or even a possibility for snow showers in the Litchfield hills, but it is still too early to call. Tuesday high pressure builds and temperatures should climb back to the upper 40s.
The Dailies
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Chilly and breezy.
Thursday: Cloudy. Snow developing in the evening, changing over to wintry mix late. Highs in the low 30s.
Friday: Wintry mix changing to rain early in the morning. Rain tapering off by mid-afternoon. Highs in the low 40s.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny becoming cloudy. Chance for a passing snow shower late. Highs in the low 40s.
Monday: Rain showers and possibly snow showers. Highs in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Becoming sunny and highs in the 40s.
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather and enjoy the rest of your evening!
-LD
