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Forecaster's Discussion 1/1/2019

1/1/2019

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​Happy New Year and good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! I hope everyone had an enjoyable start to the new year, and can’t wait to see what 2019 will hold! In terms of the weather, we could not have asked for a better start to the year with temperatures reaching 53 degrees at Bradley International Airport and sunny skies. In terms of the next week, it looks like we will see the first few flakes of the year this Thursday as we kickoff the 2019 winter.
 
Current conditions
A cold front to our southeast is currently advecting cold, dry air from Canada which will dictate our weather for tomorrow. In terms of the synoptic setup, a large trough over the western portion of the country is counteracted by a ridge in the eastern portion, which is explaining the high pressure and seasonable weather we are currently experiencing. 
Picture
Current 500 mb heights

​ 
Wednesday and Thursday
Clear skies for the majority of the day will lead to building clouds in the evening. A northwesterly flow continues to dominate our weather, with cold temperatures in the 30s and dry air. Late Wednesday night a weak system from the southeast develops and tracks over the mid-Atlantic. A weak shortwave from the polar Jetstream appears to phase with this low and as a result, light precip in the form of snow looks to develop early Thursday. Temperatures will be below freezing for the majority of the state. Expect light snow to start in the state around 3 am, but for the shoreline expect a quick changeover to rain by 4 am or 5 am. For the rest of the state, above freezing temps will creep northward as the morning progresses, changing any wet snow over to freezing rain or rain. Any precip is expected to leave the state by late morning to noon. Accumulations will be miniscule, particularly for the shoreline which should not see any accumulations. For the rest of the state, accumulations of close to an inch of wet slush, possibly higher in the higher elevations are expected. This could possibly make the morning commute a challenge, but nothing too extreme, so be prepared. 

Picture
NAM model run for the system Thursday morning.

Friday and Saturday
High pressure builds in and temperatures remain mild in the 40s statewide. For Saturday another system from the southeast tracks up the coast, south of Connecticut. Models currently are a bit foggy on this system and its exact track, but there is a slight chance for rain showers across the shoreline. And a backdoor cold front could possibly bring a few flakes of snow for the upper elevations of the state, but again it is too early to tell.


​
Picture
GFS output for the system on Saturday.

​ 
Sunday – Tuesday
Sunday temps will again be mild in the mid 40s, and fairly enjoyable weather. Sunday night a cold front passes through and temperatures will take a dip for Monday, with the potential for light snow showers Monday night and Tuesday.
 
The Dailies:
 
Wednesday: Sunny skies and cold temperatures in the 30s. Building clouds in the afternoon.
 
Thursday: Snow developing early in the morning, with a quick changeover to rain for the southern half of the state, and a late morning changeover to rain for the rest of the state. Highs in the low 40s.
 
Friday: Sunny, highs in the 40s.
 
Saturday: Chance for rain showers. Highs in the 40s. Chance of precip 40%.
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Highs in the mid 40s.
 
Monday: Colder. Highs in the 30s. Chance for light snow showers late.
 
Tuesday: Highs in the 30s. Chance for light snow showers.
 
 
Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut weather and enjoy your evening! Happy New Year!
-LD

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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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