Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After some snow in the overnight and early morning hours, a coating to around 1 inch of the white stuff accumulating statewide, we clear out and have a short period of tranquil weather with seasonable temperature, about 24 hours for us to collect our bearings after what looked to be a bit of an “appetizer” for the winter weather event to come later on this weekend. First things first, for today, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with the chance for snow showers this afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 30s. Heading into this evening, we will see the clouds break and temperatures slide back down into the low to mid 20s statewide.
After some snow in the overnight and early morning hours, a coating to around 1 inch of the white stuff accumulating statewide, we clear out and have a short period of tranquil weather with seasonable temperature, about 24 hours for us to collect our bearings after what looked to be a bit of an “appetizer” for the winter weather event to come later on this weekend. First things first, for today, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with the chance for snow showers this afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 30s. Heading into this evening, we will see the clouds break and temperatures slide back down into the low to mid 20s statewide.
For Saturday morning, things start out calm and cold, with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions with temperatures in the 20s. Clouds and frozen precipitation will begin to roll back in during Saturday afternoon and evening with temperatures holding steady in the upper 20s to around 30. Then the forecast really starts to get tricky. The entire state looks to start as a period of snow, picking up what looks to be a plowable amount in all locations including the southeast portion of the state, which looks to be the “warmest” area, per usual, in this storm. What the real question right now is, how far inland do we see a warm surge in the mid-level temperatures, therefor changing snow to sleet and freezing rain? There will be an abundance of low-level, surface cold to work with, so the event being primarily frozen is not in question.
On a brief synopsis of the event, we will have low pressure moving in from the Texas Panhandle tracking through Kentucky and then off the mid-Atlantic coast, somewhere off the New Jersey coast, strengthening along the way. The question for us, as usual, where does the storm track as it heads off the mid-Atlantic coast, does it skirt Long Island and track southeast from there? Does it track little further south? This is a very important detail in how far north the mixing line makes it, and how much actual snow the state actually sees. Little 10-20 mile deviations in storm track could mean the difference between 6 inch of snow, seeing double digits of accumulation, or seeing more sleet and freezing rain. At this time we think somewhere in the middle. Not quite where the GFS has it where, it brings more mixing, and not quite the mesoscale NAM, which shows more in the way of snow accumulation across the state.
Timing… effects of this storm will begin to be felt as early as Saturday afternoon with clouds and snow beginning to filter in. Snow, sleet, and or freezing rain will continue to fall through the overnight hours on Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Any sleet or freezing rain should transition back to snow, statewide, as we head through the day on Sunday as the tail end of the storm swings through the state. Clearing occurs later Sunday afternoon and evening, with bitter cold temperatures being ushered in Sunday night, I will get more into that later on in this discussion.
Impacts…Impacts from this storm look to be mainly caused by wintry conditions themselves. Snow, heavy at times, will provide limited visibilities and very slick roadways for the entire state, especially early in the storm statewide. As the storm begins to track closer (off the NJ coastline) and really begins to strengthen, midlevel temperatures will warm and bring a sleet/freezing rain changeover line up through the state. At this time, I’m thinking everyone sees at least a little mixing, with a more prolonged changeover to sleet and freezing rain closer to the coast. Aforementioned sleet and freezing rain may end up being the biggest impact of this storm as these conditions on top of the snow that has already fallen could spell a real tricky, if not impossible time on the roadways. As far as wind, impacts will be a little more tempered, closer to the coasts could see gusts around 30-35 mph, still enough to cause loss of power, especially when coupled with the wintry precipitation. Also with storms like these, coastal flooding, even minor is to be expected. Overall snowfall/sleet from the event right now look to be 6-12 inches in the northwest and “hillier” terrain of the state, with 4-8 inches of snow predominantly in the middle of the state, basically north of the Parkway, and 3-6 inches of snow south of this zone, where freezing rain looks to be big concern. Overall a moderate impact event.
A brief look at the long term, shows a pattern very much in flux. Earlier on in the discussion I discussed frigid temperatures being ushered in behind Saturday/Sunday’s storm. Temperatures will fall like a rock on Sunday night back through the single digits and even negative numbers further inland. Frigid temps look to stay with us through the middle of the week with temperatures moderating as another storm system looks to make its presence felt on Wednesday. At this time, it is far too early to speculate about that event, but it does look as though more wintry precipitation will impact the area in this time period. A further look ahead shows an active pattern continuing through the next 2 weeks, with the potential for a few prolonged frigid periods and ample opportunities for precipitation.
Here’s a quick look at the next 5 days:
Today: Mostly cloudy, with scattered snow showers, clearing this evening… highs in the 30s
Tonight: Mostly clear, temps in the low to mid 30s
Saturday: Mostly clear in the morning, clouds and snow moving in during the late afternoon, temperatures steady in the 30s
Saturday night: Periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, temps at the shore rising to around 32, temps inland steady in the upper 30s
Sunday: Periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain, becoming all snow late in the morning, temps steady in the upper 20s and low 30s, falling through the afternoon.
Sunday night: Snow early then gradual clearing, temperatures falling through the entire night, bottoming out in the low single digits south, to negative single digits inland.
Monday (MLK Day): Clear and cold. Highs single digits and teens statewide, falling back into the single digits at night.
Tuesday: Mostly clear early, temperatures start off frigid, then rebound back into the 20s, increasing clouds toward evening, possible snow, lows in the teens.
As always, thank you for sticking with Southern Connecticut Weather and reading this discussion. We encourage you to stay with us throughout the storm for frequent updates. Have a great day!- TW
Today: Mostly cloudy, with scattered snow showers, clearing this evening… highs in the 30s
Tonight: Mostly clear, temps in the low to mid 30s
Saturday: Mostly clear in the morning, clouds and snow moving in during the late afternoon, temperatures steady in the 30s
Saturday night: Periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, temps at the shore rising to around 32, temps inland steady in the upper 30s
Sunday: Periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain, becoming all snow late in the morning, temps steady in the upper 20s and low 30s, falling through the afternoon.
Sunday night: Snow early then gradual clearing, temperatures falling through the entire night, bottoming out in the low single digits south, to negative single digits inland.
Monday (MLK Day): Clear and cold. Highs single digits and teens statewide, falling back into the single digits at night.
Tuesday: Mostly clear early, temperatures start off frigid, then rebound back into the 20s, increasing clouds toward evening, possible snow, lows in the teens.
As always, thank you for sticking with Southern Connecticut Weather and reading this discussion. We encourage you to stay with us throughout the storm for frequent updates. Have a great day!- TW
