Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Synopsis: Below to much below normal temperatures prevail across the state for the entire forecast period. The main focus of interest in this forecast period is the winter storm which will be affecting the area tomorrow night into Monday.
First, for tonight, clear skies will allow temperatures to initially fall. However, as clouds increase and the winds become more Southwesterly. This will inhibit the fall of the temperatures, so temperatures will steady out later at night, and may even rise a bit toward morning along the South coast, where these winds will be blowing more off the Long Island Sound.
For tomorrow, clouds will thicken up as the day progresses, but the snow will still be well off to the Southwest of the state, so tomorrow will be a good day for final preparations. It will also be warmer than today, with temperatures approaching the freezing mark, especially south.
Precipitation spreads in from Southwest to Northeast tomorrow night. Start time is from 8-10 PM in the southwest to after midnight in the northeast. Precipitation starts as snow everywhere, and probably comes down hard. There will likely be several inches on the ground across the entire state by dawn on Monday
Now, here is where the forecasting challenge really begins. Depending on which computer model you believe, a warm surge (mostly aloft) will move northeast. Some models get this warm surge all the way into Northern Connecticut, but for now, with a very cold air mass to start, and bitterly cold air moving in afterwards, we have discarded those models. The other models, which are being followed for this forecast, keep most of the warm air south of the state, but allow for some mixing with sleet along the south coast. Those models are being followed right now. Because of this, we have called for 6-10” statewide. Southern areas will see heavier precipitation, but more mixing. Northern areas will see lighter precipitation, but all snow. Therefore, accumulations should pretty much balance out. We have called for locally higher amounts, since some areas could really get into a heavier burst
Synopsis: Below to much below normal temperatures prevail across the state for the entire forecast period. The main focus of interest in this forecast period is the winter storm which will be affecting the area tomorrow night into Monday.
First, for tonight, clear skies will allow temperatures to initially fall. However, as clouds increase and the winds become more Southwesterly. This will inhibit the fall of the temperatures, so temperatures will steady out later at night, and may even rise a bit toward morning along the South coast, where these winds will be blowing more off the Long Island Sound.
For tomorrow, clouds will thicken up as the day progresses, but the snow will still be well off to the Southwest of the state, so tomorrow will be a good day for final preparations. It will also be warmer than today, with temperatures approaching the freezing mark, especially south.
Precipitation spreads in from Southwest to Northeast tomorrow night. Start time is from 8-10 PM in the southwest to after midnight in the northeast. Precipitation starts as snow everywhere, and probably comes down hard. There will likely be several inches on the ground across the entire state by dawn on Monday
Now, here is where the forecasting challenge really begins. Depending on which computer model you believe, a warm surge (mostly aloft) will move northeast. Some models get this warm surge all the way into Northern Connecticut, but for now, with a very cold air mass to start, and bitterly cold air moving in afterwards, we have discarded those models. The other models, which are being followed for this forecast, keep most of the warm air south of the state, but allow for some mixing with sleet along the south coast. Those models are being followed right now. Because of this, we have called for 6-10” statewide. Southern areas will see heavier precipitation, but more mixing. Northern areas will see lighter precipitation, but all snow. Therefore, accumulations should pretty much balance out. We have called for locally higher amounts, since some areas could really get into a heavier burst
If the warmer solutions pan out, there would be the potential for another beast to show up in the forecasting process, and that would be significant icing along the south coast. For now, since we’re mostly following the cooler solutions, that is being discarded from the official forecast, but it is a possibility. It does not appear that any place in the state will exceed 32 degrees, so anything that falls will be frozen.
By later on Monday, temperatures will drop from the upper levels downward. This will allow any leftover precipitation to fairly quickly change to snow in areas that are not snow. Additional accumulations will be possible. Another concern is that bitterly cold air will move in, creating flash freeze conditions. Although actual ambient temperatures should remain below freezing, road surface temperatures will probably get warmer than that along the south coast, since they’ll be treated and have traffic on them. As road surface temperatures plummet below freezing, they will ice over very quickly and create very dangerous driving conditions.
After the storm pulls out, Tuesday will be very cold. Temperatures throughout the state should fall below 10 degrees, with colder areas getting below zero. Highs will struggle to reach 20 on Tuesday. Wednesday should feature temperatures rebounding to near normal, but only briefly, as more very cold air is slated to move in later in the day
Have a good evening everyone! Stay warm this evening, and stay with us throughout the storm, we will post updates as needed. Thank you for reading, and continuing to support SCW!- GP
