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Forecaster's Discussion: 2/7-2/9/2015 Snowfall/Icing

2/7/2015

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a general coating to 2 inches of snow fell in association with a low pressure system sending impulses of energy to out area, we will have a brief break from steady wintry precipitation through later this evening. Still, roads are wet in many places and will refreeze as temperatures dip back into the 20s. So take caution if you need to drive this evening. We could still see pockets of light snow or even some freezing drizzle tonight, but steadier precipitation looks to hold off through the early morning hours of Sunday.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the morning looks to be mostly dry but cloudy with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Precipitation begins to move back in with a low moving in from the midwest. There could be some issues with temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere being above freezing, but temperatures being well below freezing at the surface (especially at the coast) which means icing could be a very big problem in the southern counties of our state. Although the latest trends look to be south, bringing more snow into the state, all the way to the shore. Thus we've changed our snowfall map to bring the 5-9" zone closer to the shoreline, introduced 2 8-12"+ zones in the northwest and northeast hills..
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Heading through the afternoon and evening on Sunday, snow and ice will be persistent throughout the state, as the overrunning precipitation from the slow moving low pressure system continues to filter through. Temperatures statewide will remain at or below freezing for this time period, but the all important 850 mb, or mid level temperatures are very important in determining the amount of ice the state gets, especially the southern portion. A more southerly storm track not only brings less ice to the shore, but more snow to the rest of the state. As of right now, we do think things will slightly south of yesterday.

On Monday morning, frozen precipitation will still be around for the morning commute. At this point the low pressure system still will not have gotten to the mid-Atlantic coast, thus more overrunning precipitation will impact the state. I do expect there to be delays, and probably even closings of schools, businesses and the like for Monday, as roads will remain snow covered and even ice covered throughout the day. Temperatures do not look to budge much away from freezing during the day on Monday either, melting of snow and ice off the roads does not look likely.

By Monday afternoon and evening, the low pressure system should be off the mid-Atlantic coast and will begin to strengthen into a stronger coastal storm. At this point, places that haven't changed to snow will do so. There could be some heavy snows in this time period and the state will see most of its predicted to snowfall.  The storm will begin to pull away later Monday night, but instead of frigid temperatures and gusty winds in its wake, temperatures will still be in the 20s, and because the coastal storm isn't tracking as close to Connecticut as many of the past storms, winds will be relatively light, so that is one less concern.
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Looking ahead to Tuesday and beyond, Tuesday looks to be a fairly nice day with sunny skies and temperatures in the 30s. Beyond the middle of next week, temperatures do look to plunge right back into the ice box, we will have more discussion on that and a full extended forecast in the next few days.

Thank you for reading, and have a great rest of your evening!  Again, be careful if you need to travel this evening as any wet pavement will refreeze and cause slippery conditions. Stick with SCW throughout this winter event for frequent updates!- Tim


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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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