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Forecaster's Discussion 3/1/2015- Snowfall Map and Mid-Week Storm Discussion.

3/1/2015

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently we have some light to moderate snow showers gradually moving through the state , a few hours earlier than forecast, with the bulk of the heavier snow moving in for the mid and late afternoon. Right now we have temperatures around the state ranging from the upper teens and low 20s inland, to mid and upper 20s even low 30s in some spots in southern Connecticut, so plenty cold enough to support accumulating snows at the surface. These temperatures will very slightly rise as we head toward the evening with clouds and steady snows hanging around through later this evening.
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As previously mentioned, snow is moving in a little sooner than progged, but that means it should be out of the state sooner than forecast. Looks as though Monday morning rush will be spared any heavy snows, but there could still be a lingering snow shower or mixed precipitation in the eastern portion of the state. The bulk of the steadier, heavier snows will fall between the mid and late afternoon hours to about midnight or a little before. When all is said and done, a general 3-6 inches of snow will have fallen across the entire state, with some isolated totals up to 8 in the southern part of the state. We will also be watching the rain/snow line very closely as we head into the height of the storm. Right now it looks as though that line will stay JUST off the coast, but toward the end we could see that line come ashore on the shoreline of New London and eastern Middlesex counties, where a quick change over to rain could occur, but after a bulk of the precipitation already has fallen as snow.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the morning rush looks to start out slippery. There could be a lingering snow shower or 2 in eastern Connecticut, but most if not all of the accumulating snow looks to be done by this point. Right now it looks as if school delays will be probable across the state, with maybe an isolated closing or 2 mixed in. From the middle of the morning Monday on though the rest of the day skies will clear out and become sunny, temperatures statewide will climb back into the low 30s inland to around the mid 30s at the shore.  For Monday night, skies remain clear, and it becomes cold statewide with temperatures tumbling back into single digits inland, and low to mid teens in southern Connecticut. 
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After a fairly tranquil Monday, we head to Tuesday. Tuesday morning starts off cold with temperatures in the low to mid teens statewide and mostly clear skies. In advance of a complex weather maker, clouds will increase, especially after lunchtime, with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s inland to the low 30s at the shore. Precipitation in the form of snow begins to fill in across the state later in the afternoon, right in time for the evening rush. As of right now accumulations look to be light over most of the state, in the general 1-3 to 2-4 inch range before a change over to first sleet, then freezing rain and then plain rain as we head toward Wednesday morning. 

There are still a few details that need to be ironed out, namely, how far west the low pressure system tracks, how much and how long the snow lasts, and how much rain we get on Wednesday. If the storm tracks west through the Great Lakes, we will spared a good amount of rain, and Wednesday would be a 'warm' mostly dry day with pockets of drizzle, temperatures could approach 50. The likely outcome is that the storm tracks just east of the Great Lakes, brings the state of Connecticut a showery, 40-45 degree day on Wednesday. There will be no coastal flooding impact or high winds from the low pressure system as it will be tracking so far west. 

After the low pressure system moves out, a cold front will move through and drop temperatures like a rock on Wednesday night, temperatures will fall from highs in the 40s, through the 20s at this time, setting the stage for a cold Thursday. For Thursday, we are watching for a wave that the models have been hinting at for the last few days. There again could be another, minor snow maker during the day on Thursday, with cold temperatures. We will be watching this closely.
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Have a good rest of the day everyone, and stay with SCW throughout the storm for updates! -Tim
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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