Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Let’s get right down to business—the next few days will be ugly. From shower chances, to impressive cold for this time of year, to snow chances, the next seven days look to be…stormy. A series of cold fronts and clipper like systems will bring us continuing chances for rain and snow showers, and a clipper next week may be another period of interest. To be clear, at this time I do not anticipate a widespread and significant winter weather event for Connecticut.
Friday
Friday looks to be the first of what will be many unsettled days in the next week, as a low pressure system well to the north and its attendant cold front pushes through the region. Showers will be possible all day long, and some isolated thunderstorms are even possible. With the cold front approaching, it will be a relatively warm day with highs likely to reach the low to mid 60s. Although not a washout, it’s still a shame that many will be carrying umbrellas during the day. Like we’ve seen the last few days—expect a breezy day.
Let’s get right down to business—the next few days will be ugly. From shower chances, to impressive cold for this time of year, to snow chances, the next seven days look to be…stormy. A series of cold fronts and clipper like systems will bring us continuing chances for rain and snow showers, and a clipper next week may be another period of interest. To be clear, at this time I do not anticipate a widespread and significant winter weather event for Connecticut.
Friday
Friday looks to be the first of what will be many unsettled days in the next week, as a low pressure system well to the north and its attendant cold front pushes through the region. Showers will be possible all day long, and some isolated thunderstorms are even possible. With the cold front approaching, it will be a relatively warm day with highs likely to reach the low to mid 60s. Although not a washout, it’s still a shame that many will be carrying umbrellas during the day. Like we’ve seen the last few days—expect a breezy day.
Saturday
Saturday the changes really begin to take shape in Connecticut. As the cold front passes and stalls to the southeast of the region, the chance of showers will remain. Again, not a washout, but with cooler temperatures as cold air advects in, it will probably be a worse day than Friday.
Sunday
Saturday night into Sunday is probably the most intriguing period for me, honestly. As the cold air rushes in Saturday evening there is a chance that the showers in the area turn to snow, and there looks to be enough instability and sufficient lift to open the door for a period of snow squalls. Timing is a bit uncertain right now, but I am looking at the overnight/early morning period.
Sunday morning the first of two clipper systems looks to approach from the west. As I mentioned earlier this season, clippers are not known for dropping large amounts of precipitation. It will be windy with a winter like chill in the air, and the chances for snow showers during the day could add to those looking for one last look at true wintry appeal in early April. I don’t anticipate there being a widespread or significant snow event out of this, however.
Saturday the changes really begin to take shape in Connecticut. As the cold front passes and stalls to the southeast of the region, the chance of showers will remain. Again, not a washout, but with cooler temperatures as cold air advects in, it will probably be a worse day than Friday.
Sunday
Saturday night into Sunday is probably the most intriguing period for me, honestly. As the cold air rushes in Saturday evening there is a chance that the showers in the area turn to snow, and there looks to be enough instability and sufficient lift to open the door for a period of snow squalls. Timing is a bit uncertain right now, but I am looking at the overnight/early morning period.
Sunday morning the first of two clipper systems looks to approach from the west. As I mentioned earlier this season, clippers are not known for dropping large amounts of precipitation. It will be windy with a winter like chill in the air, and the chances for snow showers during the day could add to those looking for one last look at true wintry appeal in early April. I don’t anticipate there being a widespread or significant snow event out of this, however.
Above you see the 18z GFS simulation of the surface weather and temperatures. In the second image in particular, it is easy to track the cold air filtering into the state as the weekend progresses. It will be seasonably cool at first and then impressive cold arrives by late weekend and early next week. I'm not sold on us getting as cold as this particular simulation suggests, but the overall progression of features at the surface is consistent with other guidance.
Monday/Tuesday
Monday and Tuesday? You guessed it—chilly with the chance of rain and snow. Here, we see another weak area of low pressure approach from the west, and with cold air in place, we could see another period of snow. Currently, the track of the low does not look ideal for a snow event, let alone the fact that temperatures may be marginal at the surface, which is a killer for significant accumulating snow in April. The period is something worth watching casually, but I currently lead to a minor to nonevent.
Monday/Tuesday
Monday and Tuesday? You guessed it—chilly with the chance of rain and snow. Here, we see another weak area of low pressure approach from the west, and with cold air in place, we could see another period of snow. Currently, the track of the low does not look ideal for a snow event, let alone the fact that temperatures may be marginal at the surface, which is a killer for significant accumulating snow in April. The period is something worth watching casually, but I currently lead to a minor to nonevent.
Above you will see the GFS ensembles looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere. At 500mb, you see the transition to a deep trough over the weekend and lower heights, signaling a potentially unsettled and colder than normal period. By Monday and Tuesday, notice the dip in isobars over the region. This is another signal for a period of unsettled weather, and with a better orientation, you see perhaps a better track with would open the door for a wintry event. Still not great, however.
Wednesday
Wednesday looks nice! With the prior system departing and high pressure potentially building in, we should see a decent day with sun! Although we are still likely below normal in terms of high temperatures, seeing nicer weather will feel good to many!
Thursday
As Thursday rolls around, we see another system approaching. This far out, timing is not something worth discussing much, but the chance of rain exists—especially in the evening hours.
The dailies:
Friday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Seasonably warm as the cold front approaches. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 60s, but dropping quickly by evening. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a lingering chance of showers early, transitioning to a chance of snow showers or squalls by evening. Snow squalls could produce a quick coating of snow. Cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s, with lows falling near freezing overnight. Chance of precipitation 40% early and 60% late.
Sunday: Chance of snow showers and squalls early, becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%
Monday: Chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Chance of rain 60%. Chance of snow 30%.
Tuesday: Chance of snow early, transitioning to sunnier conditions as the day progresses. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of snow 40%.
Wednesday: Sunny with highs in the upper 40s.
Thursday: Sunny early with an increasing chance of rain late. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thank you for reading SCW!
-DB
Wednesday
Wednesday looks nice! With the prior system departing and high pressure potentially building in, we should see a decent day with sun! Although we are still likely below normal in terms of high temperatures, seeing nicer weather will feel good to many!
Thursday
As Thursday rolls around, we see another system approaching. This far out, timing is not something worth discussing much, but the chance of rain exists—especially in the evening hours.
The dailies:
Friday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Seasonably warm as the cold front approaches. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 60s, but dropping quickly by evening. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a lingering chance of showers early, transitioning to a chance of snow showers or squalls by evening. Snow squalls could produce a quick coating of snow. Cooler with highs in the low to mid 50s, with lows falling near freezing overnight. Chance of precipitation 40% early and 60% late.
Sunday: Chance of snow showers and squalls early, becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%
Monday: Chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Chance of rain 60%. Chance of snow 30%.
Tuesday: Chance of snow early, transitioning to sunnier conditions as the day progresses. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of snow 40%.
Wednesday: Sunny with highs in the upper 40s.
Thursday: Sunny early with an increasing chance of rain late. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thank you for reading SCW!
-DB
