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Forecaster's Discussion--4/15/17

4/15/2017

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
A week ago, when looking at the forecast, I thought that Easter Sunday would be another relatively cool period. However, we’re seeing quite a bit of a seesaw between spring and summer in the first weeks of April. Overall, this is the time of year where there’s not too much excitement, which is a good thing!
 
The week that was ended up being pretty nice, with little rain and a number of sunny (to hot) days for many away from the shore.
 
As we head into next week, I’m expecting a return to cooler temperatures and an unsettled period by the middle to latter half of the week.
 
Sunday/Monday
Tomorrow looks incredible. It’ll be another taste of late spring and early summer, with temperatures soaring into the 80s inland. At the shoreline, the forecast is a bit more tricky. Depending on the wind direction, we could see a significantly cooler day (highs in the 60s) or warmer day. Right now, I’ll lean toward enough of a westerly component to bring temperatures into the mid to upper 70s at the shoreline, especially west of New Haven.  
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By the latter portion of the afternoon and early evening, we’ll be watching a cold front begin to push into the region. The best dynamics for precipitation are far to our northwest, but I won’t rule out a period of showers tomorrow evening. No big deal, though.
 
Monday looks like a cooler day, but it’s still pretty mild. This may be the last unseasonably warm day we have during the forecast period, so get out and enjoy it. Both Sunday and Monday will be a bit breezy.
 
Tuesday
By Tuesday, we are cooler and more cloudy, and there may even be a shower or two. This heralds the arrival of a more unsettled pattern, but no washout by any means.
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Wednesday-Saturday
From here, the rest of the week looks meh. A series of high pressures and disturbances will pass to our north and south, putting us in position for rain showers Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and maybe even Saturday. This far out, I’ll introduce low to moderate chances, but with cloudy and damp conditions, expect temperatures to be held down for the period. I'm going a bit warmer than some of the guidance at this time. 
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The dailies
Sunday: Sunny and warm, with a chance of showers later in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s at the shore. Chance of rain 20%.
 
Monday: Partly sunny and mild. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
 
Tuesday: Partly sunny and cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
 
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 50%
 
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 40%
 
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 20%.
 
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Have a great week!

​-DB
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