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Forecaster's Discussion--4/2/17

4/2/2017

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​Happy April!
 
After a March that brought the state wintry precipitation and colder temperatures than the February that came before it, we finally turn the page to another month.
 
As we push into spring, for me, the big story is that our drought is easing. At the end of December, much of the state was gripped by a pretty significant drought by Connecticut’s standards. After a wet month of March, things are looking up. I expect the coming week to continue adding to the relief. 
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​Just compare it to the end of December and you’ll know we’ve come a long way. 
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Sunday
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Above you’ll see the visible satellite imagery from the NEW GOES-16 satellite, which is already showing forecasters a glimpse of the next great leap in weather forecasting. Note the data is still experimental, there are obvious kinks that still need to be worked out, but the level of detail it provides is incredible.
 
Today should be a nice day. I expect mostly sunny skies and seasonable conditions, although things will be a bit breezy at times. Today is a great day to get outside and enjoy the first weekend of April.
 
Monday/Tuesday
Monday is a carbon copy of today, but it should be a bit warmer, making it the pick of the week as far as I’m concerned. By later Monday night however, we’re watching our next rainmaker approaching from the southwest.
 
Much like our last storm, I expect this system to be one that brings quite a bit of moisture with it. Rain should begin in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, and the entire day should be a washout. I’m expecting rainfall totals over an inch right now statewide. Much needed. 
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​Wednesday
If I had to give a day the runner up prize for pick of the week, this would be the day. Wednesday should be our next intervening day between storms, which means we should see sunny, dry, and seasonable conditions as we watch for the next storm to make its approach.
 
Thursday through Saturday
Thursday is another rain day. An area of low pressure is expected to pass to our northwest, bringing with it another rainy day. Right now, I don’t expect it to be as much of a washout as Tuesday, but showers could linger into the weekend as the system meanders. The eventual progression is still a bit uncertain, but for now, I’m going with a more dreary than dry start to the weekend.
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Above you'll see the GEFS depiction of precipitation departure from normal over the next week. Below, you'll see an animation of predicted accumulated precip over the next week. A wet week is on tap. 
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​The dailies:
Sunday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds during the evening hours. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
 
Tuesday: Rain beginning before dawn. Rain should be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 90%.
 
Wednesday: Sunny and seasonable. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
 
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
 
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low 50s. Chance of rain 20%.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!

​-DB
 
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