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Forecaster's Discussion--4/23/17

4/23/2017

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​Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
First, about yesterday. Oops. That was about as big an across the board bust as you could see. I think every meteorologist missed the ability of rain to hang around on Saturday, and as a result, it wasn’t much of an outdoorsy day. Fortunately, we were talking about rain and not snow, which would have been much higher impact. Busts happen, but for those of you who have been with SCW, you know that we’ll continue to learn and get better.
 
Now, for the week ahead.
 
Monday
The two main stories of the week will be the continued rain midweek and the potential for warmth by the end of the forecast period. Tomorrow looks to be a nice day, after a chilly start that may bring areas of frost to our typical cold locations. Heads up to folks with vulnerable plants!
 
Monday looks ok. The ridge of high pressure that we thought would be in control all weekend begins to push offshore, as an area of low pressure begins to develop well to our south. That storm will crawl up the coast, much like a wintertime event, but it won’t have much of an impact on the state tomorrow with the exception of clouds that roll in as the day progresses.
 
Overall, tomorrow is fine, a bit warm inland, and cooler at the shore. 
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​NAM Monday through late night Tuesday.
 
Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday are rainy, cool, and ugly. The area of low pressure makes its way up the coast, and rain heads into the region by early Tuesday. Tuesday will be particularly chilly, with breezy conditions and easterly flow that is reminiscent of an early spring storm. 
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​Tuesday evening into Wednesday may have the heaviest rain, and with the amount of moisture transport the guidance is signaling, this could be a significant rain event. Right now, I expect rain on the order of 1-2 inches between Tuesday and Wednesday. Note however, that some guidance has predicted even more rainfall for the period. We toss for now…
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Thursday
By Thursday, the storm will have weakened and departed, and I expect a return to warmth. Right now, Thursday looks like the warmest day of the week, with temperatures inland pushing 80 with strong southwesterly flow. If clouds linger, we may be a bit cooler, but I expect a warm and somewhat humid, day.
​
Friday & the Weekend
Friday may be warm too, but a cold front advances on the state and brings a potential period of showers. The main question becomes whether the front clears the region, and whether we see a return of the ridge that has brought us off and on periods of warmth (and kept storm systems away). Right now, I lean toward the front not fully clearing, making next weekend a bit unsettled. However, that is far from certain. Stay tuned. 
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​The dailies:
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s at the shore.
 
Tuesday: Rain with breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
 
Wednesday: Rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
 
Thursday: Partly cloudy and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at the shore.
 
Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to low 70s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.  
 
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
 
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
 
Finally, we need a new photo! If you have photos of the current Spring, send them our way! We want to showcase another season in #BeautifulConnecticut!
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!

​-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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