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Forecasters Discussion--5/12/16

5/12/2016

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

How do you like that! Temperatures soared across the state today, and we all enjoyed beautiful, spring like conditions for once. Today actually was one of the warmest days of the year so far for many. If only we had this everyday!

Unfortunately, this nice stretch will come to an end as high pressure begins to slide east of the region. With nice and warm weather departing, clouds, rain, and cooler conditions will replace it. 

Friday
Tomorrow starts off dry, but it will be a cloudy day with the potential for fog along the shoreline early. As the day progresses, a cold front will approach and bring the chance of showers and heavier precipitation during the mid afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how much instability we see, there may even be an isolated thunderstorm somewhere. The rain ends by around midnight.

Picture
High resolution NAM depiction of precipitation over the next 36 hours. Note that it brings showers into the state tomorrow morning. 
Saturday
The rain from our first system should end well before sunrise, leaving much of Saturday dry as well. There may even be peeks of sun! However, much like Friday, another disturbance approaches by mid afternoon and evening, and this one could be a bit more potent in the thunderstorm development department.

​Overall, I think we’re probably going to end up with run of the mill showers and thunderstorms, but wind profiles look a bit more favorable, and if we get some decent instability we could see some storms produce gusty winds and small hail. I’ll be watching closely.  


Picture
GFS depiction of early Sunday morning. 
Sunday/Monday
In the wake of the cold front passage on Saturday, we get back down to cooler than normal temperatures. The upside? We go back to sunny skies!


Tuesday/Wednesday
Temperatures begin to rebound by Tuesday, as we see another decent to nice day. By Wednesday, we’re watching another system approach, and that could bring us showers. 


Thursday
We’re still watching the potential for a coastal low to make its way north on Thursday, bringing significant rain. It is far enough out where timing could change, but I think the signal is there for an unsettled period as we head into that weekend. 
​

The dailies:
Friday: Mostly cloudy early with an increasing chance of showers by mid afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain ends around midnight. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday: Breezy and partly sunny early with increasing clouds by early afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms by mid afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday: Cooler and mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the mid 60s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers by afternoon. Highs near 70. Chance of rain 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%

Thank you for reading!​

-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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